TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Lukas Rulc 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111157111171210
Lukas Rulc
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 89 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Adam at 55.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 24–18 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 18 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-18 in 42
Adam
Correct
gap of 6 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1717 vs Rulc 1663
Adam
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 40% vs Rulc 60%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 40% vs Rulc 60%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -3 · Rulc +1
Adam
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.73 / Rulc 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Adam)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13172966
Adam1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Rulc2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 52 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayRulc5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam60%3 of 5
AwayRulc60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Adam3Rulc7n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S3Adam8Rulc2n = 10Adam took 8 of 10
S4Adam4Rulc6n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S5Adam4Rulc4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamRulcA − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.946.5−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 549 vs 343 / 68751.7%49.9%284 / 549 vs 343 / 687Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.73/Rulc 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 06:15L. Adam46101112582L. Rulc521281011113
WAug 11 · 07:45L. Adam4291111113L. Rulc32119841
LJun 18 · 05:15L. Adam3662111162L. Rulc49111188113
LJun 15 · 12:28L. Adam4012101081L. Rulc45101212113
WJun 15 · 09:30L. Adam47118116113L. Rulc4591151192
WJun 12 · 12:44L. Adam46116117113L. Rulc4181141172
LJun 12 · 10:45L. Adam4379111152L. Rulc45111148113
LJun 4 · 06:00L. Adam53119111662L. Rulc58911918113
WJun 1 · 10:45L. Adam581015711153L. Rulc571213118132
WMay 28 · 05:45L. Adam481111114113L. Rulc4171321182
L. Adam10
LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990LSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113LSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123LSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530WSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123WSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam1.5315560R. Pisa2.381711113WSep 15 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73119871L. Adam2.0071111113LSep 15 · 07:15L. Adam2.009390L. Dobias1.731111113WSep 15 · 06:15L. Adam3.001171112113P. Wasik1.36311131062
L. Rulc10
WSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990WSep 22 · 10:45L. Rulc1.80111111113M. Makara1.91813941LSep 22 · 09:45L. Rulc1.736980T. Liska2.001111113WSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671LSep 16 · 19:45S. Rejent2.1011118113L. Rulc1.67981191WSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera3.506790L. Rulc1.281111113WSep 16 · 17:15J. Dufek2.00471181L. Rulc1.7311118113WSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123LSep 15 · 07:30M. Ullman2.0015111011113L. Rulc1.7317812672WSep 15 · 07:00L. Rulc1.83111011113J. Senk1.83512651
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