TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Michalik vs Artur Kubiak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111165111181614
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
3111165111181614
H2H Jerzy Michalik 22–34 Artur Kubiak Jerzy Michalik has won 22 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-34 in 56
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 12 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1385 vs Kubiak 1381
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Kubiak 80%
Kubiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Kubiak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Kubiak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.00 / Kubiak 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kubiak)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13172767
Michalik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 110 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Kubiak1.71
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 155 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 107 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik4wins
AwayKubiak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik50%2 of 4
AwayKubiak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S2Michalik3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Michalik4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S4Michalik4Kubiak4n = 8split evenly
S5Michalik2Kubiak1n = 3Michalik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikKubiakM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.2−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime561 / 1187 vs 491 / 89947.3%54.6%561 / 1187 vs 491 / 899Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakMichalik 2.00/Kubiak 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 22:35J. Michalik32137481A. Kubiak44111111113
WAug 12 · 15:00J. Michalik48911311143A. Kubiak46114118122
LJul 27 · 21:20J. Michalik33591181A. Kubiak4211119113
LJul 21 · 01:30J. Michalik238780A. Kubiak331111113
WJul 16 · 01:00J. Michalik51119911113A. Kubiak4891111982
LJul 15 · 18:55J. Michalik2777130A. Kubiak371111153
WJun 29 · 22:10J. Michalik4311912113A. Kubiak338111041
LJun 25 · 01:25J. Michalik24611341A. Kubiak4011711113
WJun 24 · 19:20J. Michalik4171211113A. Kubiak351110771
LJun 22 · 16:15J. Michalik4711914582A. Kubiak549111211113
J. Michalik10
WSep 22 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.6661290J. Michalik2.051114113LSep 22 · 24:00M. Machelski2.20113911113J. Michalik1.5781111982WSep 21 · 23:10J. Michalik1.5411119123A. Staniczek2.254411101LSep 21 · 22:00J. Michalik2.75105111172M. Warzecha1.40121159113WSep 21 · 08:50J. Slawomir1.60371171J. Michalik2.1011119113LSep 21 · 07:30H. Tkaczyk1.30111711113J. Michalik2.80919671WSep 21 · 06:30A. Barton3.8586111192J. Michalik1.15111188113LSep 21 · 05:50D. Maszczynski3.00811611113J. Michalik1.2511911772WSep 21 · 04:30T. Kordaszewski3.958830J. Michalik1.201111113WSep 21 · 03:10W. Stechly3.65111148102J. Michalik1.17791111123
A. Kubiak10
WSep 22 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.75111180A. Kubiak1.401313113WSep 21 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.866840A. Kubiak1.801111113LSep 21 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.541111113A. Kubiak2.256580WSep 21 · 21:10M. Machelski2.3581111892A. Kubiak1.50115611113WSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113WSep 21 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.8051311842A. Kubiak1.391111411113LSep 21 · 17:35J. Cyndera1.86811511163A. Kubiak1.80113111142WSep 21 · 16:50D. Maszczynski3.40691341A. Kubiak1.28111111113WSep 21 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.57111161192A. Kubiak2.25138119113LSep 20 · 02:00A. Kubiak3.00561171M. Guzik1.2611119113
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