TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marian Brunner vs Mateusz Karpiuk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114411911––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 70.2% is still 70.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
70.2%
70.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
711114411911––
H2H Marian Brunner 1–1 Mateusz Karpiuk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1259 vs Karpiuk 1396
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 40% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 30% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -1 · Karpiuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.05 / Karpiuk 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13170781
Brunner2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Karpiuk1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 57 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBrunner1wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricBrunnerKarpiukB − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match27.530.5−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 585 vs 139 / 30849.1%45.1%287 / 585 vs 139 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukBrunner 2.05/Karpiuk 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner3611311113M. Karpiuk28611561
LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner198650M. Karpiuk331111113
M. Brunner10
LSep 23 · 24:20K. Delikatny1.60112147113M. Brunner2.20611121162LSep 22 · 21:30M. Brunner2.05117121182P. Gesiarz1.65811146113WSep 22 · 20:20M. Brunner2.381111113K. Delikatny1.535750LSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113WSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142WSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.831111113M. Karpiuk1.835370WSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091LSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041WSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113
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