TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Mateusz Karpiuk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.49
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31110121315––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
31110121315––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 12–10 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Karpiuk beat Kwiatkowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (63%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1419 vs Karpiuk 1404
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 50% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Karpiuk +3
Karpiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.49 / Karpiuk 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170779
Kwiatkowski1.49
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Karpiuk2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 64 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski6wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski7Karpiuk3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski7Karpiuk3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski5Karpiuk3n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S5Kwiatkowski1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukKwiatkowski − KarpiukBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.5+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 277 vs 140 / 30943.7%45.3%121 / 277 vs 140 / 309Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.49/Karpiuk 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.7%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski30951151M. Karpiuk4111118113
LSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski32671181M. Karpiuk4211119113
WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski49111116113M. Karpiuk42791881
WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski4111811113M. Karpiuk32811491
WAug 24 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski511111117113M. Karpiuk4171351152
WAug 23 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Karpiuk147250
LAug 23 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski50128911102M. Karpiuk511011117123
WAug 18 · 01:50K. Kwiatkowski5471112243M. Karpiuk5211910221
LAug 17 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski46118511112M. Karpiuk48911114133
WAug 17 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski391414113M. Karpiuk32121280
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1.6651111123P. Gesiarz2.101198101LSep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.55111556102K. Delikatny2.306131111123LSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113LSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.671112113M. Lewczuk2.1051040WSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112LSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 22 · 23:05M. Brunner2.05711491M. Karpiuk1.6511411113WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142WSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.831111113M. Karpiuk1.835370WSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091LSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041WSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113
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