TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Piotr Gesiarz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111191181210––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
5111191181210––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–1 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1410 vs Gesiarz 1327
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Gesiarz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Gesiarz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -2 · Gesiarz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.66 / Gesiarz 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170782
Kwiatkowski1.66
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Gesiarz2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayGesiarz1wins
4 of 6 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 5–1, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGesiarz25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski2Gesiarz4n = 6Gesiarz took 4 of 6
S2Kwiatkowski3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski1Gesiarz5n = 6Gesiarz took 5 of 6
S4Kwiatkowski5Gesiarz0n = 5Kwiatkowski took 5 of 5
S5Kwiatkowski4Gesiarz0n = 4Kwiatkowski took 4 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home467%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiGesiarzK − GBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match42.841.5+1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 276 vs 154 / 33043.5%46.7%120 / 276 vs 154 / 330Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.66/Gesiarz 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 22 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski561191411113P. Gesiarz3981116132
WAug 22 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski511011811113P. Gesiarz4812811982
WAug 19 · 03:30K. Kwiatkowski40341111113P. Gesiarz4611119782
WAug 18 · 21:30K. Kwiatkowski491111511113P. Gesiarz4913911972
WJul 30 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski3611122113P. Gesiarz347101161
LJul 30 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski259880P. Gesiarz331111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.55111556102K. Delikatny2.306131111123LSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113LSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.671112113M. Lewczuk2.1051040WSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112LSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113LSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 22 · 21:30M. Brunner2.05117121182P. Gesiarz1.65811146113LSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113WSep 22 · 18:20K. Delikatny1.832860P. Gesiarz1.721111113LSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113LSep 21 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.851211113P. Gesiarz1.8010780LSep 21 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.5581111113P. Gesiarz2.25113891WSep 21 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.5012118113A. Staniczek2.351061181WSep 21 · 16:00P. Gesiarz1.361111113D. Maszczynski2.958750LSep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.33761191T. Kocik1.2011119113
Upcoming Matches
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P. Gesiarz
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