TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Karpiuk vs Mateusz Baran 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131210119711114
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
11131210119711114
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 6–2 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1387 vs Baran 1348
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 80% vs Baran 60%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 80% vs Baran 40%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Baran +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.00 / Baran 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13170783
Karpiuk2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 64 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Baran1.71
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKarpiuk6wins
AwayBaran2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk100%3 of 3
AwayBaran40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk3Baran5n = 8Baran took 5 of 8
S2Karpiuk8Baran0n = 8Karpiuk took 8 of 8
S3Karpiuk6Baran2n = 8Karpiuk took 6 of 8
S4Karpiuk4Baran2n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKarpiukBaranK − BBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.532.2+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 307 vs 86 / 16445%52.4%138 / 307 vs 86 / 164Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranKarpiuk 2.00/Baran 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4071111113M. Baran30115591
WSep 21 · 18:10M. Karpiuk331111113M. Baran217680
WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk331111113M. Baran238960
LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk34911771M. Baran3811511113
LAug 9 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4361111872M. Baran46116711113
WAug 9 · 15:25M. Karpiuk44111111113M. Baran35138951
WJul 21 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4211119113M. Baran32961161
WJul 20 · 20:05M. Karpiuk3961111113M. Baran33117691
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.831111113M. Karpiuk1.835370WSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091LSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041WSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113WSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861
M. Baran10
WSep 22 · 22:40K. Delikatny1.9110111041M. Baran1.7112912113WSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113LSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981LSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113
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