TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Michta
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111416811––––
Jakub Caban
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Caban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
4111416811––––
H2H Mateusz Michta 17–9 Jakub Caban Jakub Caban has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Michta
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-9 in 26
Michta
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michta 1519 vs Caban 1465
Michta
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michta 40% vs Caban 80%
Caban
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michta 30% vs Caban 60%
Caban
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michta -1 · Caban +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Michta) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Caban form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichta 1.60 / Caban 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Michta)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13169910
Michta1.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 81 days ago (Jul 02) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Caban2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 12 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichta8wins
AwayCaban2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichta leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichta87.5%7 of 8
AwayCabann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michta8Caban2n = 10Michta took 8 of 10
S2Michta5Caban5n = 10split evenly
S3Michta7Caban3n = 10Michta took 7 of 10
S4Michta2Caban3n = 5Caban took 3 of 5
S5Michta3Caban0n = 3Michta took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichtaCabanM − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.431.6+5.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichtaCabanBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 273 vs 222 / 40050.6%55.5%138 / 273 vs 222 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichtaMichta 1.60/Caban 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Michta · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Caban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 9 · 17:30M. Michta331111113J. Caban175660
WOct 7 · 19:35M. Michta49119126113J. Caban48811101182
WSep 25 · 20:45M. Michta511110127113J. Caban47912101152
WSep 25 · 15:35M. Michta331111113J. Caban135530
WSep 24 · 17:30M. Michta331111113J. Caban157710
WSep 15 · 19:20M. Michta331111113J. Caban216870
LSep 15 · 16:00M. Michta1911440J. Caban351311113
LSep 10 · 17:35M. Michta381410771J. Caban46121211113
WSep 8 · 16:05M. Michta3811511113J. Caban33811591
WSep 2 · 20:30M. Michta47711711113J. Caban4111411692
M. Michta10
LSep 21 · 16:30L. Buklat1.831211113M. Michta1.8610650LJul 2 · 22:00P. Kos1.9512712113M. Michta1.7510111091WJul 2 · 21:00M. Michta2.041111133K. Zapala1.6468110LJul 2 · 19:00T. Stachera1.78148119113M. Michta1.86121191152LJul 2 · 17:00P. Kos1.881115113M. Michta1.7641350WJul 2 · 16:00B. Gola1.5591080M. Michta2.201112113LJul 2 · 15:30M. Michta2.371161171K. Guzy1.4813113113LMay 27 · 22:10K. Guzy—1211113M. Michta—10690WMay 27 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk1.921411691M. Michta1.7216611113LMay 27 · 19:30M. Michta1.9111118832T. Stachera1.73581111113
J. Caban10
WSep 21 · 15:30J. Caban2.0514124113K. Patryk1.6812101161WSep 14 · 20:00W. Arkadiusz2.0012661192J. Caban1.721011119113LSep 14 · 18:30J. Caban1.9061111101W. Arkadiusz1.8011913123WSep 14 · 17:30K. Patryk1.6311811282J. Caban2.10711611113WSep 14 · 17:00J. Caban2.35111186113K. Kos1.5397111192WSep 14 · 16:00J. Caban2.05811128113L. Buklat1.70119101162LSep 8 · 22:00P. Kedzierski2.651114113J. Caban1.4251280LSep 8 · 21:00J. Caban1.957370K. Patryk1.701111113LSep 8 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.80119119123J. Caban1.35811911102WSep 8 · 17:00K. Kos1.7311911772J. Caban1.98711811113
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