TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Ales Drozd
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 6–10 Ales Drozd Ondrej Skvor has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skvor beat Drozd 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Drozd
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1438 vs Drozd 1455
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 80% vs Drozd 60%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 60% vs Drozd 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +4 · Drozd -1
Skvor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.83 / Drozd 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Drozd)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13169747
Skvor1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Drozd1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor4wins
AwayDrozd6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDrozd leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor100%4 of 4
AwayDrozd100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S2Skvor6Drozd4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S3Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S4Skvor4Drozd1n = 5Skvor took 4 of 5
S5Skvor0Drozd3n = 3Drozd took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorDrozdS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.634.8+3.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 174 vs 143 / 27951.7%51.3%90 / 174 vs 143 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdSkvor 1.83/Drozd 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 13:10O. Skvor257990A. Drozd331111113
WSep 21 · 11:40O. Skvor56132111113A. Drozd4711191341
LSep 19 · 14:45O. Skvor2710980A. Drozd341211113
WSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor341211113A. Drozd2110290
WSep 14 · 15:45O. Skvor331111113A. Drozd185580
LSep 13 · 10:45O. Skvor48811811102A. Drozd46118114123
LSep 11 · 16:10O. Skvor2661190A. Drozd351113113
LAug 23 · 06:40O. Skvor4791191172A. Drozd41116112113
LAug 1 · 10:10O. Skvor4691111962A. Drozd41111711113
WAug 1 · 08:10O. Skvor4411913113A. Drozd326111141
O. Skvor10
LSep 21 · 15:10O. Coufal1.731111133O. Skvor2.0049110WSep 21 · 14:10O. Skvor1.6711414113K. Przeczek2.102111251WSep 21 · 11:40O. Skvor2.00132111113A. Drozd1.7311191341WSep 21 · 10:40O. Skvor1.53911711113M. Kliment2.3811711882WSep 21 · 10:40O. Skvor1.31911711113M. Klimenta3.2011711882WSep 21 · 09:40O. Skvor1.578121111113P. Jokiel2.2511146392LSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113WSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661LSep 19 · 18:15M. Janik2.001111113O. Skvor1.737390
A. Drozd10
LSep 21 · 11:40O. Skvor2.00132111113A. Drozd1.7311191341WSep 21 · 11:10P. Jokiel2.1011115882A. Drozd1.67961111113WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6171111113M. Kliment2.20113771WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6271111113M. Klimenta2.15113771LSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133LSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113LSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132WSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113LSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113
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