TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131121191113114––
Ales Drozd
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 21-19
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 103 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Ales Drozd at 54.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 5–9 Ales Drozd Ondrej Skvor has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Drozd
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1440 vs Drozd 1452
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 80% vs Drozd 60%
Skvor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 50% vs Drozd 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +3 · Drozd +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 2.00 / Drozd 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Drozd)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13166634
Skvor2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Drozd1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 46 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it70% 37 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor3wins
AwayDrozd7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDrozd leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor75%3 of 4
AwayDrozd100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S2Skvor6Drozd4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S3Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S4Skvor4Drozd2n = 6Skvor took 4 of 6
S5Skvor0Drozd4n = 4Drozd took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorDrozdS − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.3+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 172 vs 142 / 27751.7%51.3%89 / 172 vs 142 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdSkvor 2.00/Drozd 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 14:45O. Skvor2710980A. Drozd341211113
WSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor341211113A. Drozd2110290
WSep 14 · 15:45O. Skvor331111113A. Drozd185580
LSep 13 · 10:45O. Skvor48811811102A. Drozd46118114123
LSep 11 · 16:10O. Skvor2661190A. Drozd351113113
LAug 23 · 06:40O. Skvor4791191172A. Drozd41116112113
LAug 1 · 10:10O. Skvor4691111962A. Drozd41111711113
WAug 1 · 08:10O. Skvor4411913113A. Drozd326111141
LJul 25 · 16:45O. Skvor44121141162A. Drozd50146118113
LJul 25 · 15:15O. Skvor381112781A. Drozd4591411113
O. Skvor10
WSep 21 · 10:40O. Skvor1.53911711113M. Kliment2.3811711882WSep 21 · 10:40O. Skvor1.31911711113M. Klimenta3.2011711882WSep 21 · 09:40O. Skvor1.578121111113P. Jokiel2.2511146392LSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113WSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661LSep 19 · 18:15M. Janik2.001111113O. Skvor1.737390LSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951LSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980
A. Drozd10
WSep 21 · 11:10P. Jokiel2.1011115882A. Drozd1.67961111113WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6271111113M. Klimenta2.15113771WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6171111113M. Kliment2.20113771LSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133LSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113LSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132WSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113LSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113WSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980
Upcoming Matches
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