TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119116511811811
Ales Drozd
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 59.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 10–11 Ales Drozd Patrik Jokiel has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1272 vs Drozd 1446
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Drozd 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 40% vs Drozd 60%
Drozd
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Drozd +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.10 / Drozd 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Drozd)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13166613
Jokiel2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 73 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back37% 28 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Drozd1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 46 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it70% 37 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel5wins
AwayDrozd5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel50%2 of 4
AwayDrozd50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel5Drozd5n = 10split evenly
S3Jokiel5Drozd5n = 10split evenly
S4Jokiel6Drozd3n = 9Jokiel took 6 of 9
S5Jokiel3Drozd4n = 7Drozd took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielDrozdJ − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.345.5−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 454 vs 141 / 27645.6%51.1%207 / 454 vs 141 / 276Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdJokiel 2.10/Drozd 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 16:44P. Jokiel516111011133A. Drozd42116122112
LSep 20 · 13:40P. Jokiel46111291132A. Drozd50514119113
WSep 13 · 12:40P. Jokiel47118611113A. Drozd4691111692
LSep 13 · 09:45P. Jokiel54158111282A. Drozd551711610113
WAug 13 · 14:45P. Jokiel521111711123A. Drozd49871113102
LJul 25 · 14:15P. Jokiel4371111592A. Drozd50118911113
WJul 23 · 16:34P. Jokiel4361113133A. Drozd4111811111
LJul 23 · 16:10P. Jokiel248880A. Drozd331111113
LJul 15 · 08:55P. Jokiel51121211972A. Drozd541014811113
WJul 15 · 07:15P. Jokiel4291111113A. Drozd35119961
P. Jokiel10
WSep 21 · 12:10M. Kliment3.40391161P. Jokiel1.3011117113WSep 21 · 12:10M. Klimenta4.20391161P. Jokiel1.2011117113LSep 21 · 09:40O. Skvor1.578121111113P. Jokiel2.2511146392WSep 20 · 20:45P. Jokiel2.25611115113J. Vanous1.5711791152LSep 20 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8011571132R. Benesz1.91911118113WSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113LSep 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.53911511113P. Jokiel2.3811511772WSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133WSep 20 · 16:10O. Kus1.731159101P. Jokiel2.0061111123LSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113
A. Drozd10
LSep 21 · 11:40O. Skvor2.00132111113A. Drozd1.7311191341WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6271111113M. Klimenta2.15113771WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6171111113M. Kliment2.20113771LSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133LSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113LSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132WSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113LSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113WSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980
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