TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Danylo Us
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111210611117
Mykhailo Skliar
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeDanylo Us to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Us above · Mykhailo Skliar below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Danylo Us at 65.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Us 2–1 Mykhailo Skliar Mykhailo Skliar has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Us
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Us 1412 vs Skliar 1433
Skliar
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Us 40% vs Skliar 80%
Skliar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Us 50% vs Skliar 80%
Skliar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Us -1 · Skliar +3
Skliar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Us) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skliar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUs 1.67 / Skliar 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Us)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166498
Us1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 34 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Skliar2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 25 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeUs2wins
AwaySkliar1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderUs leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Us2Skliar1n = 3Us took 2 of 3
S2Us3Skliar0n = 3Us took 3 of 3
S3Us1Skliar2n = 3Skliar took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricUsSkliarU − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.739.0+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUsSkliarBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 469 vs 71 / 14442.4%49.3%199 / 469 vs 71 / 144Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UsUs 1.67/Skliar 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Us · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Us won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 21 · 03:35D. Us5812121011132M. Skliar571410126153
WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us351111133M. Skliar2568110
WAug 24 · 21:05D. Us4111118113M. Skliar35881181
D. Us10
LSep 21 · 14:55D. Us1.837970M. Fomin1.831111113LSep 21 · 03:35M. Skliar2.631410126153D. Us1.4412121011132WSep 21 · 02:35D. Kim1.7311611882D. Us2.00511611113WSep 21 · 01:05A. Peretiatko2.00911761D. Us1.7311911113LSep 20 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.50111011113D. Us2.50812871LSep 20 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.57811712113D. Us2.25119111092LSep 16 · 20:25D. Us1.731181110112V. Slabyshev2.00511512133WSep 16 · 16:55P. Ishchyk2.25911111172D. Us1.57119135113LSep 16 · 16:25A. Peretiatko2.381011811113D. Us1.5312511852WSep 16 · 15:25D. Us1.67118133113A. Lifanov2.10911111192
M. Skliar10
LSep 21 · 15:25D. Rehotun1.611111113M. Skliar2.209870WSep 21 · 03:35M. Skliar2.631410126153D. Us1.4412121011132WSep 21 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.504720M. Skliar2.501111113WSep 21 · 24:35M. Skliar2.5011136133D. Kim1.5091111111LSep 20 · 23:35A. Peretiatko1.67611118113M. Skliar2.1011951122WSep 20 · 22:05M. Skliar3.40111125113H. Kulishov1.3097111162WSep 17 · 19:25M. Skliar2.631111113O. Korobov1.447660LSep 17 · 17:55M. Skliar1.806650A. Lifanov1.911111113WSep 17 · 16:25M. Skliar1.53117811113V. Hainiuk2.3871111962WSep 17 · 14:55M. Skliar1.50511611113I. Elfemov2.5011411262
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