TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142586
Played Sep 17Finished
Mykhailo Skliar
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511114611112116
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Skliar to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Skliar above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 78 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Mykhailo Skliar at 61.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Skliar 8–1 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skliar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Skliar
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skliar 1346 vs Elfemov 1361
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skliar 40% vs Elfemov 0%
Skliar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skliar 30% vs Elfemov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skliar +1 · Elfemov -5
Elfemov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skliar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkliar 1.50 / Elfemov 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skliar)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13142586
Skliar1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite80% won 43 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Elfemov2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSkliar8wins
AwayElfemov1wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSkliar leads 8–1, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkliar100%5 of 5
AwayElfemov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skliar5Elfemov4n = 9Skliar took 5 of 9
S2Skliar6Elfemov3n = 9Skliar took 6 of 9
S3Skliar5Elfemov4n = 9Skliar took 5 of 9
S4Skliar4Elfemov1n = 5Skliar took 4 of 5
S5Skliar4Elfemov0n = 4Skliar took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSkliarElfemovS − EBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.333.6+6.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkliarElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 135 vs 285 / 47947.4%59.5%64 / 135 vs 285 / 479Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkliarSkliar 1.50/Elfemov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Skliar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skliar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 13 · 17:05M. Skliar501161111113I. Elfemov3941113292
WJul 29 · 19:35M. Skliar46411119113I. Elfemov4411771182
WJul 22 · 14:35M. Skliar341111123I. Elfemov2688100
LJul 16 · 14:55M. Skliar2468100I. Elfemov341111123
WJul 15 · 19:05M. Skliar4181111113I. Elfemov32117861
WJul 1 · 19:35M. Skliar331111113I. Elfemov214980
WJun 29 · 13:05M. Skliar52911912113I. Elfemov44118111042
WJun 24 · 13:35M. Skliar501110711113I. Elfemov4061211382
WJun 19 · 19:05M. Skliar331111113I. Elfemov229490
M. Skliar10
WSep 17 · 13:25M. Skliar2.10111110133V. Sharpai1.676712111LSep 14 · 19:55P. Ishchyk1.73911511113M. Skliar2.0011911652WSep 14 · 18:55M. Fomin1.441512111M. Skliar2.63111110133LSep 14 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi1.571111173M. Skliar2.2546150LSep 14 · 15:25D. Kim1.44911911113M. Skliar2.6311311882WSep 14 · 13:25A. Peretiatko1.4091140M. Skliar2.751113113LSep 14 · 03:35Y. Sokoltsov1.5051112113M. Skliar2.501171071LSep 14 · 02:35D. Kim1.5361111113M. Skliar2.38116751LSep 14 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.281711113M. Skliar3.5015680LSep 13 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.28111110113M. Skliar3.50661271
I. Elfemov10
LSep 17 · 13:55O. Korobov1.331111113I. Elfemov3.257980LSep 15 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.671113113I. Elfemov2.1081160LSep 15 · 18:05I. Elfemov2.505930A. Lifanov1.501111113LSep 15 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.3381111123I. Elfemov3.251148101LSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 15 · 13:05F. Chashchin1.6110760I. Elfemov2.201211113LSep 14 · 18:35O. Korobov1.3091114113I. Elfemov3.401131241LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192
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