TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Danylo Us
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911711––––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Us above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mykyta Fomin at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Us 5–4 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Us 1423 vs Fomin 1446
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Us 60% vs Fomin 40%
Us
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Us 50% vs Fomin 30%
Us
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Us +1 · Fomin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Us) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUs 1.83 / Fomin 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Us)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166382
Us1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Fomin1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeUs5wins
AwayFomin4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderUs leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUs100%3 of 3
AwayFomin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Us3Fomin6n = 9Fomin took 6 of 9
S2Us4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S3Us4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S4Us4Fomin1n = 5Us took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricUsFominU − FBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.436.8−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUsFominBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 470 vs 280 / 57942.6%48.4%200 / 470 vs 280 / 579Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UsUs 1.83/Fomin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Us · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 23:05D. Us351111133M. Fomin2999110
WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us4711205113M. Fomin407181141
LAug 25 · 02:35D. Us207670M. Fomin331111113
WAug 5 · 22:05D. Us4071111113M. Fomin35118791
LJul 10 · 04:05D. Us2687110M. Fomin351111133
LJun 23 · 24:35D. Us369116101M. Fomin3911511123
WJun 18 · 02:35D. Us46481111123M. Fomin49111189102
WJun 4 · 21:05D. Us3911512113M. Fomin389111081
LApr 9 · 23:35D. Us214980M. Fomin331111113
D. Us10
WSep 21 · 13:25D. Us1.67126126113M. Skliar2.101011101172LSep 21 · 03:35M. Skliar2.631410126153D. Us1.4412121011132WSep 21 · 02:35D. Kim1.7311611882D. Us2.00511611113WSep 21 · 01:05A. Peretiatko2.00911761D. Us1.7311911113LSep 20 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.50111011113D. Us2.50812871LSep 20 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.57811712113D. Us2.25119111092LSep 16 · 20:25D. Us1.731181110112V. Slabyshev2.00511512133WSep 16 · 16:55P. Ishchyk2.25911111172D. Us1.57119135113LSep 16 · 16:25A. Peretiatko2.381011811113D. Us1.5312511852WSep 16 · 15:25D. Us1.67118133113A. Lifanov2.10911111192
M. Fomin10
WSep 21 · 13:55A. Peretiatko1.807160M. Fomin1.911111113WSep 18 · 03:35H. Kulishov1.831111591M. Fomin1.8381311113LSep 18 · 02:35A. Peretiatko1.83111198113M. Fomin1.8367111192LSep 18 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.731111113M. Fomin2.007450LSep 17 · 23:05D. Kim1.615101111143M. Fomin2.20111249122LSep 17 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov1.401111113M. Fomin2.755880LSep 14 · 20:25D. Kim1.6111118113M. Fomin2.20361141LSep 14 · 18:55M. Fomin1.441512111M. Skliar2.63111110133LSep 14 · 16:55P. Ishchyk1.9161111113M. Fomin1.80116861WSep 14 · 14:55A. Peretiatko1.676650M. Fomin2.101111113
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