TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111197111210119
Danylo Us
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Danylo Us below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 59.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 32–21 Danylo Us Danylo Us has won 21 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polysynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-21 in 53
Polysynskyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1452 vs Us 1409
Polysynskyi
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 80% vs Us 60%
Polysynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 60% vs Us 30%
Polysynskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi +1 · Us -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polysynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.57 / Us 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161945
Polysynskyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 14)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 71 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Us2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 46 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi6wins
AwayUs4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPolysynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayUs50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi6Us4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Polysynskyi5Us5n = 10split evenly
S3Polysynskyi8Us2n = 10Polysynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Polysynskyi2Us4n = 6Us took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiUsP − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.2+0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiUsBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 694 vs 202 / 48051.7%42.1%359 / 694 vs 202 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.57/Us 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polysynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi39111011342D. Us50712911113
WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi351111133D. Us2779110
WJun 29 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi591771112123D. Us561511614102
LJun 17 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi332101291D. Us44111210113
WMay 14 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi331111113D. Us246990
WMay 6 · 22:05M. Polysynskyi4161311113D. Us401111991
WMay 5 · 16:25M. Polysynskyi331111113D. Us228860
WApr 29 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi4151114113D. Us371181261
LApr 27 · 18:25M. Polysynskyi2911990D. Us351311113
LApr 20 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi30116581D. Us3741111113
M. Polysynskyi10
LSep 20 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.839940D. Kim1.831111113WSep 14 · 19:25A. Peretiatko1.8381111832M. Polysynskyi1.83117811113LSep 14 · 18:25M. Polysynskyi1.80911861D. Kim1.9111711113WSep 14 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi1.571111173M. Skliar2.2546150WSep 14 · 15:55M. Polysynskyi1.611111113P. Ishchyk2.208790WSep 14 · 13:55M. Polysynskyi2.001112711113M. Fomin1.73131011782LSep 14 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi2.00113671S. Pitsyk1.7391111113WSep 14 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.67119511113Y. Sokoltsov2.1091111182LSep 14 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi2.50851151H. Kulishov1.5011118113LSep 13 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.733870D. Kim2.001111113
D. Us10
LSep 16 · 20:25D. Us1.731181110112V. Slabyshev2.00511512133WSep 16 · 16:55P. Ishchyk2.25911111172D. Us1.57119135113LSep 16 · 16:25A. Peretiatko2.381011811113D. Us1.5312511852WSep 16 · 15:25D. Us1.67118133113A. Lifanov2.10911111192WSep 16 · 13:55Y. Stepanchuk1.44118961D. Us2.6361111113LSep 9 · 04:05S. Pitsyk1.44111210113D. Us2.637101241LSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113LSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 22:35D. Rehotun1.671111113D. Us2.108990LSep 8 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi1.67102111113D. Us2.101219661
Upcoming Matches
M. Polysynskyi
D. Us
Sep 20 · 23:05D. Us2.50H. Kulishov1.50—Sep 21 · 01:05D. Us1.73A. Peretiatko2.00—Sep 21 · 02:35D. Us2.00D. Kim1.73—Sep 21 · 03:35D. Us1.44M. Skliar2.63—Sep 21 · 13:25D. Us1.44M. Skliar2.63—Sep 21 · 14:55D. Us1.83M. Fomin1.83—Sep 21 · 16:25D. Us2.63D. Rehotun1.44—Sep 21 · 17:55D. Us1.67P. Ishchyk2.10—Sep 21 · 19:25D. Us1.73A. Peretiatko2.00—
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