TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181113611118118
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 63.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 46–68 Vitalii Kaganovych Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 46 of their 114 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-68 in 114
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 22 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hainiuk 1412 vs Kaganovych 1416
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hainiuk 40% vs Kaganovych 20%
Hainiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hainiuk 40% vs Kaganovych 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hainiuk +1 · Kaganovych +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHainiuk 2.50 / Kaganovych 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kaganovych)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166342
Hainiuk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Kaganovych1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 126 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 88 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHainiuk3wins
AwayKaganovych7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHainiuk50%3 of 6
AwayKaganovych100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hainiuk6Kaganovych4n = 10Hainiuk took 6 of 10
S2Hainiuk2Kaganovych8n = 10Kaganovych took 8 of 10
S3Hainiuk5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S4Hainiuk2Kaganovych6n = 8Kaganovych took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHainiukKaganovychH − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.9−3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHainiukKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 675 vs 340 / 55254.2%61.6%366 / 675 vs 340 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychHainiuk 2.50/Kaganovych 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 19:35V. Hainiuk501111611113V. Kaganovych4881311882
LSep 15 · 15:35V. Hainiuk36811891V. Kaganovych4211911113
LSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk351071261V. Kaganovych44121110113
WSep 8 · 15:35V. Hainiuk331111113V. Kaganovych238870
LSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk31118391V. Kaganovych3961111113
LSep 1 · 18:25V. Hainiuk3911411492V. Kaganovych41411411113
LAug 31 · 17:35V. Hainiuk361110781V. Kaganovych4171211113
LAug 25 · 17:35V. Hainiuk2313910V. Kaganovych371511113
LAug 24 · 14:35V. Hainiuk29641181V. Kaganovych4111118113
WAug 18 · 19:35V. Hainiuk4011511133V. Kaganovych337114111
V. Hainiuk10
WSep 21 · 17:35V. Sharpai1.57611231V. Hainiuk2.2511311113LSep 21 · 15:35I. Yelfimov1.8311113113V. Hainiuk1.83491191WSep 21 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.7391111113V. Slabyshev2.00112961LSep 21 · 13:35A. Lifanov1.4411117113V. Hainiuk2.63771161LSep 17 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.579560I. Elfemov2.251111113WSep 17 · 18:25O. Korobov1.40781141V. Hainiuk2.7511117113LSep 17 · 16:25M. Skliar1.53117811113V. Hainiuk2.3871111962LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.00119130V. Sharpai1.731311153LSep 17 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.44911129133V. Hainiuk2.631191011112WSep 15 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.671113113I. Elfemov2.1081160
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 21 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.611210118113V. Slabyshev2.20101221192LSep 21 · 16:05A. Lifanov2.101111113V. Kaganovych1.679990LSep 21 · 14:05I. Yelfimov2.50711911113V. Kaganovych1.5011411892LSep 21 · 13:05V. Sharpai1.7313311113V. Kaganovych2.001111961LSep 15 · 18:35V. Kaganovych1.61511981F. Chashchin2.2011811113LSep 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych2.003880A. Yakovenko1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.5011911113V. Hainiuk2.50811891WSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942WSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113
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