Ivan Yelfimov vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 21Finished

Ivan Yelfimov

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

5–1Last 6Won last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

711114911118119

Vitalii Kaganovych

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Vitalii Kaganovych to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingIvan Yelfimov above · Vitalii Kaganovych below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 62.5%

92 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:18

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Kaganovych

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Yelfimov 1595 vs Kaganovych 1443

Yelfimov

Correct

both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Yelfimov 80% vs Kaganovych 40%

Yelfimov

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Yelfimov 83% vs Kaganovych 50%

Yelfimov

Correct

33pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Yelfimov +4 · Kaganovych -3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kaganovych form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsYelfimov 2.50 / Kaganovych 1.50

Signal prob.38% / 63%

Edge (Kaganovych)+0.0pp

Setka Cup · #13166384

Yelfimov2.50

83%won 5 of 6 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

83%takes the first set · 5 of 6

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Kaganovych1.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite66% won 126 of 192

Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66

Up 1–0, closes it84% 88 of 105

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricYelfimovKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 6 vs 339 / 54883.3%61.9%5 / 6 vs 339 / 548Avg sets wonper match2.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kaganovych

Yelfimov 2.50/Kaganovych 1.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.5%

Kaganovych · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Yelfimov won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

I. Yelfimov6