TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dmytro Yurkov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117121412141513411
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Yurkov above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 113 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 64.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Yurkov 126–127 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Yurkov has won 126 of their 253 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
126-127 in 253
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yurkov 1842 vs Balabei 1945
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yurkov 20% vs Balabei 40%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yurkov 50% vs Balabei 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yurkov -3 · Balabei -1
Yurkov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYurkov 2.38 / Balabei 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Balabei)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166321
Yurkov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 21 days ago (Aug 31) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 57 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back11% 13 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 76
Balabei1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 195 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it86% 140 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYurkov1wins
AwayBalabei9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYurkovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBalabei90%9 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yurkov0Balabei10n = 10Balabei took 10 of 10
S2Yurkov4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S3Yurkov3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Yurkov2Balabei3n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricYurkovBalabeiY − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match30.738.4−7.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurkovBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 996 vs 509 / 100343.6%50.8%434 / 996 vs 509 / 1003Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiYurkov 2.38/Balabei 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 15:00D. Yurkov2310670S. Balabei341211113
WAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov4051113113S. Balabei371161191
LAug 11 · 12:30D. Yurkov28511571S. Balabei4111811113
LAug 5 · 12:30D. Yurkov2788110S. Balabei351111133
LJul 25 · 12:30D. Yurkov46611811102S. Balabei46117115123
LJul 23 · 17:13D. Yurkov46911113122S. Balabei49116711143
LJul 23 · 12:30D. Yurkov215970S. Balabei331111113
LJul 20 · 13:30D. Yurkov2391040S. Balabei341112113
LJul 16 · 17:29D. Yurkov32781161S. Balabei4211119113
LJul 16 · 14:00D. Yurkov219480S. Balabei331111113
D. Yurkov10
LSep 21 · 13:30R. Horokh1.611111113D. Yurkov2.208970LAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113LAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460WAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113LAug 18 · 17:28D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.106860WAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov2.3851113113S. Balabei1.531161191WAug 18 · 15:30D. Yurkov1.5791211113S. Kushnirenko2.251110961WAug 18 · 14:00D. Yurkov2.10113711113D. Kryshtal1.6741111692LAug 18 · 13:00D. Yurkov2.25117951R. Horokh1.5791111113
S. Balabei10
LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei1.50117771D. Kryshtal2.5021111113LSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 16 · 17:29S. Balabei1.401111137113S. Kushnirenko2.75513111192WSep 16 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1711112113S. Kiilo4.50551191LSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.4011711113S. Balabei1.30611591WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 18 · 16:30D. Yurkov2.3851113113S. Balabei1.531161191
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