TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148612
Played Sep 18Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112711711711––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 64.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 83–42 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 42 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Balabei
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
83-42 in 125
Balabei
Wrong
gap of 41 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1951 vs Kryshtal 1870
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 40% vs Kryshtal 60%
Kryshtal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 50% vs Kryshtal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei -1 · Kryshtal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.50 / Kryshtal 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Balabei)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148612
Balabei1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 202 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it96% 97 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it87% 142 of 163
Kryshtal2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 78 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayKryshtal4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei83.3%5 of 6
AwayKryshtal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei6Kryshtal4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Balabei8Kryshtal2n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S3Balabei5Kryshtal5n = 10split evenly
S4Balabei4Kryshtal3n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKryshtalB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.934.4+1.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1000 vs 329 / 76150.8%43.2%508 / 1000 vs 329 / 761Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.50/Kryshtal 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kryshtal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 12:30S. Balabei4061111123D. Kryshtal311173101
WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei351113113D. Kryshtal2881190
LSep 15 · 12:30S. Balabei24431161D. Kryshtal3911116113
WSep 11 · 14:30S. Balabei3711114113D. Kryshtal29491151
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei371111153D. Kryshtal2896130
LAug 31 · 16:30S. Balabei528121011112D. Kryshtal531110127133
WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei3711113123D. Kryshtal346711101
LAug 28 · 12:30S. Balabei337114111D. Kryshtal3711211133
WAug 26 · 08:00S. Balabei331111113D. Kryshtal248790
LAug 25 · 13:30S. Balabei31118751D. Kryshtal4181111113
S. Balabei10
LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 16 · 17:29S. Balabei1.401111137113S. Kushnirenko2.75513111192WSep 16 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1711112113S. Kiilo4.50551191LSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.4011711113S. Balabei1.30611591WSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.501173101S. Balabei1.5061111123WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei1.401113113D. Kryshtal2.7581190LSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 19 · 10:34D. Kryshtal1.61911161S. Kushnirenko2.2011811113WSep 19 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko2.2011411462D. Kryshtal1.61611711113LSep 19 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.8013114992I. Shyndel1.911171111113LSep 19 · 06:30D. Kryshtal8.506870S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 19 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.571111113V. Komar2.255760WSep 18 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.57111011113S. Kushnirenko2.25912451LSep 18 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101112113D. Kryshtal1.611291091LSep 18 · 14:30D. Kryshtal8.5012411372S. Ponomarenko1.051011911113LSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.501173101S. Balabei1.5061111123LSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei1.401113113D. Kryshtal2.7581190
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