TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13141648
Played Sep 16Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511131311711119
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9
102 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 95–25 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 25 of their 120 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kushnirenko beat Balabei 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.40 / Kushnirenko 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Balabei)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13141648
Balabei1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 199 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it88% 140 of 160
Kushnirenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 130 of 392
Down 0–1, comes back18% 43 of 239
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei7wins
AwayKushnirenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei85.7%6 of 7
AwayKushnirenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei7Kushnirenko3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S2Balabei9Kushnirenko1n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10
S3Balabei6Kushnirenko4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S4Balabei4Kushnirenko2n = 6Balabei took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKushnirenkoB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.329.5+7.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 1011 vs 328 / 79150.8%41.5%514 / 1011 vs 328 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.40/Kushnirenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 14:00S. Balabei31611591S. Kushnirenko4011711113
WSep 15 · 14:00S. Balabei351113113S. Kushnirenko2181120
WSep 14 · 14:00S. Balabei4291111113S. Kushnirenko25117521
WSep 11 · 13:00S. Balabei4011711113S. Kushnirenko27611731
LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei4551191192S. Kushnirenko46116117113
WAug 26 · 07:00S. Balabei331111113S. Kushnirenko219480
WAug 25 · 16:30S. Balabei331111113S. Kushnirenko189450
LAug 22 · 12:30S. Balabei4311117862S. Kushnirenko4687111193
WAug 20 · 08:30S. Balabei331111113S. Kushnirenko214890
WAug 18 · 13:30S. Balabei3811115113S. Kushnirenko30841171
S. Balabei10
WSep 16 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1711112113S. Kiilo4.50551191LSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.4011711113S. Balabei1.30611591WSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.501173101S. Balabei1.5061111123WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei1.401113113D. Kryshtal2.7581190LSep 15 · 16:00S. Balabei7.009450S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh1.731111113S. Balabei2.004890WSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal2.3811116113S. Balabei1.53431161WSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei2.001311911113R. Horokh1.7315511562
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 16 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501219113R. Horokh1.50101750LSep 16 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20121181182D. Kryshtal1.611081113113WSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.4011711113S. Balabei1.30611591WSep 16 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3311129143S. Kiilo3.2591011121LSep 15 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50711261R. Horokh1.5011811113LSep 15 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.207128101D. Kryshtal1.61111011123LSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.2581120S. Balabei1.331113113LSep 15 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.003750S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 14 · 17:04S. Kiilo2.751011861S. Kushnirenko1.4012511113LSep 14 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50117122102R. Horokh1.503111011123
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