TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117411611411––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:33 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 65 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 63.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 66–78 Michal Chalupa Zbynek Pagac has won 66 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-78 in 144
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 12 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1674 vs Chalupa 1747
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 60% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 60% vs Chalupa 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +1 · Chalupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.50 / Chalupa 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165640
Pagac2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 97 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 99
Chalupa1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 115 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it89% 48 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it77% 80 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac2wins
AwayChalupa8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChalupa87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S2Pagac4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Pagac4Chalupa3n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5Pagac1Chalupa2n = 3Chalupa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacChalupaP − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.7−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 681 vs 388 / 73147.9%53.1%326 / 681 vs 388 / 731Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaPagac 2.50/Chalupa 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac25114641M. Chalupa4071111113
LSep 19 · 13:30Z. Pagac239950M. Chalupa331111113
LSep 19 · 10:30Z. Pagac389111081M. Chalupa4211812113
LSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac225890M. Chalupa331111113
WSep 13 · 14:00Z. Pagac521061411113M. Chalupa45121112462
LSep 4 · 18:30Z. Pagac32911481M. Chalupa4111811113
WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac4111712113M. Chalupa344111091
LSep 3 · 21:30Z. Pagac4261181162M. Chalupa46119114113
LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac44811411102M. Chalupa50118118123
LSep 1 · 19:30Z. Pagac152760M. Chalupa331111113
Z. Pagac10
WSep 21 · 18:30D. Szotek1.919780Z. Pagac1.801111113LSep 19 · 13:30M. Chalupa1.441111113Z. Pagac2.639950WSep 19 · 12:30R. Hudeczek1.67111191092Z. Pagac2.10571112113WSep 19 · 11:30Z. Pagac2.50111185113F. Nadymacek1.5079111182LSep 19 · 10:30M. Chalupa1.5311812113Z. Pagac2.389111081LSep 17 · 20:59Z. Pagac1.441112591M. Holub2.6341411113WSep 17 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.83121173113T. Kypr1.83104111172LSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113WSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380
M. Chalupa10
WSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.7311520113D. Szotek2.006111871LSep 21 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.7311691162R. Hudeczek2.00511119113WSep 19 · 13:30M. Chalupa1.441111113Z. Pagac2.639950WSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113WSep 19 · 11:00R. Hudeczek1.737760M. Chalupa2.001111113WSep 19 · 10:30M. Chalupa1.5311812113Z. Pagac2.389111081WSep 17 · 21:28T. Kypr2.101111831M. Chalupa1.6791311113WSep 17 · 20:00M. Holub2.25611951M. Chalupa1.5711811113WSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.508950T. Kypr2.501111113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Pagac
Nothing scheduled
M. Chalupa
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