TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152589
Played Sep 19Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119811511118
Frantisek Nadymacek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Frantisek Nadymacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 58.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 5–8 Frantisek Nadymacek Zbynek Pagac has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:33What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nadymacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Nadymacek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1662 vs Nadymacek 1729
Nadymacek
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 40% vs Nadymacek 20%
Pagac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 70% vs Nadymacek 40%
Pagac
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -2 · Nadymacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Nadymacek) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadymacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.50 / Nadymacek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Nadymacek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152589
Pagac2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 96 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 97
Nadymacek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 23 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac4wins
AwayNadymacek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNadymacek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%4 of 4
AwayNadymacek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Nadymacek6n = 10Nadymacek took 6 of 10
S2Pagac5Nadymacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pagac5Nadymacek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pagac4Nadymacek6n = 10Nadymacek took 6 of 10
S5Pagac2Nadymacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacNadymacekP − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.3−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacNadymacekBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 676 vs 33 / 5347.8%62.3%323 / 676 vs 33 / 53Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadymacekPagac 2.50/Nadymacek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Nadymacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 15:00Z. Pagac351011591F. Nadymacek3812411113
WAug 20 · 17:30Z. Pagac50119811113F. Nadymacek4251111872
LAug 20 · 14:00Z. Pagac336101161F. Nadymacek3911125113
WAug 16 · 16:30Z. Pagac4211911113F. Nadymacek28511481
WAug 10 · 14:30Z. Pagac3811115113F. Nadymacek33981151
LAug 5 · 17:28Z. Pagac4131461172F. Nadymacek511112116113
LAug 5 · 15:00Z. Pagac331071151F. Nadymacek4212118113
WAug 4 · 12:58Z. Pagac40111152113F. Nadymacek4596111182
LAug 4 · 12:30Z. Pagac326101151F. Nadymacek4011126113
LAug 3 · 13:28Z. Pagac4171111572F. Nadymacek45116611113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 19 · 10:30M. Chalupa1.5311812113Z. Pagac2.389111081LSep 17 · 20:59Z. Pagac1.441112591M. Holub2.6341411113WSep 17 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.83121173113T. Kypr1.83104111172LSep 17 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.255890M. Chalupa1.571111113WSep 17 · 18:00M. Holub2.208850Z. Pagac1.611111113WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:30R. Skacelik2.2511881132Z. Pagac1.57711119113WSep 17 · 14:00Z. Pagac1.3091311113J. Schwan3.401111511WSep 16 · 17:29R. Hudeczek1.50119761Z. Pagac2.5091111113
F. Nadymacek10
LSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113WSep 19 · 10:00F. Nadymacek1.5311127113R. Hudeczek2.387101181LSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751LSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740LSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.00811681F. Nadymacek1.7311711113WSep 1 · 15:30F. Nadymacek1.571111123L. Kern2.2565100LSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881
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