TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Rafael Turrini vs Karl Zimmermann 0-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 22Finished
Rafael Turrini
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4119111012––––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafael Turrini above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 57 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Rafael Turrini 1–1 Karl Zimmermann Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Turrini
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Turrini 1975 vs Zimmermann 1641
Turrini
Wrong
both rated, 334 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Turrini 100% vs Zimmermann 40%
Turrini
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Turrini 70% vs Zimmermann 50%
Turrini
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Turrini +5 · Zimmermann +1
Turrini
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTurrini 1.11 / Zimmermann 6.00
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Turrini)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165503
Turrini1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite86% won 60 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Zimmermann6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 6 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTurrini1wins
AwayZimmermann1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTurriniZimmermannT − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match28.026.5+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTurriniZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 250 vs 35 / 6185.2%57.4%213 / 250 vs 35 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniTurrini 1.11/Zimmermann 6.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.4%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 22 · 07:00R. Turrini2349100K. Zimmermann341111123
WJun 2 · 06:30R. Turrini331111113K. Zimmermann197840
R. Turrini10
WSep 21 · 15:30C. Schmitt15.001186131R. Turrini1.0191111153WSep 21 · 13:30M. Stefanidis1.83711641R. Turrini1.8911611113WSep 21 · 12:00S. Happek15.00541591R. Turrini1.01111113113WSep 21 · 09:00S. Almeida2.59861171R. Turrini1.4511119113WSep 21 · 07:00O. Kosolosky6.50951181R. Turrini1.1011117113LSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192LSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470
K. Zimmermann10
WSep 21 · 17:30S. Happek3.2555110K. Zimmermann1.331111133LSep 21 · 14:30S. Almeida2.05116115113K. Zimmermann1.7061151162WSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113LSep 21 · 11:00O. Kosolosky1.061111113K. Zimmermann8.008740LSep 21 · 10:00M. Stefanidis—1111911153K. Zimmermann—961113132WSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LSep 18 · 08:00D. Rinderer1.221111113K. Zimmermann4.002480LSep 18 · 07:00K. Zimmermann2.63111113882M. Scharrer1.446131111113WSep 17 · 15:30J. Harencak2.63113771K. Zimmermann1.4441111113WSep 17 · 13:30L. Qiu1.2081211342K. Zimmermann4.331110611113
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