TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Volodymyr Tatarnykov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711811118118611
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Tatarnykov above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 59.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Tatarnykov 49–80 Serhii Aristarkhov Volodymyr Tatarnykov has won 49 of their 129 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-80 in 129
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 31 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tatarnykov 1579 vs Aristarkhov 1620
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tatarnykov 40% vs Aristarkhov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tatarnykov 40% vs Aristarkhov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tatarnykov -1 · Aristarkhov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTatarnykov 2.25 / Aristarkhov 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161097
Tatarnykov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 23 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Aristarkhov1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 101 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 74 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTatarnykov2wins
AwayAristarkhov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTatarnykov50%2 of 4
AwayAristarkhov100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tatarnykov4Aristarkhov6n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S2Tatarnykov5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S3Tatarnykov2Aristarkhov7n = 9Aristarkhov took 7 of 9
S4Tatarnykov3Aristarkhov2n = 5Tatarnykov took 3 of 5
S5Tatarnykov0Aristarkhov3n = 3Aristarkhov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovT − ABasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.9−1.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 401 vs 323 / 59152.6%54.7%211 / 401 vs 323 / 591Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovTatarnykov 2.25/Aristarkhov 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov381111881S. Aristarkhov3813311113
WAug 23 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov4211119113S. Aristarkhov34951191
WAug 22 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov341211113S. Aristarkhov2410860
LJul 26 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov45121161152S. Aristarkhov45145114113
LJul 25 · 17:29V. Tatarnykov4411811862S. Aristarkhov51911911113
LJul 12 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov4611761482S. Aristarkhov494111112113
LJun 28 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2511590S. Aristarkhov351311113
LJun 27 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2696110S. Aristarkhov351111133
V. Tatarnykov10
LSep 20 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.008860M. Hubenko1.731111113WSep 20 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.3311811113D. Kuzmenko3.25711971LSep 20 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.53813121172O. Syksa2.381115108113WSep 19 · 17:35D. Prylepa2.385850V. Tatarnykov1.531111113WSep 19 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2.201141192S. Aristarkhov1.61711991LSep 19 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov1.53111031162A. Vasylets2.38812117113LSep 19 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov1.504118101D. Prylepa2.5011911102LSep 19 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov2.00871171M. Hubenko1.7311118113WSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112LSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113WSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113LSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov1.8381030M. Hubenko1.831112113LSep 19 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2.201141192S. Aristarkhov1.61711991WSep 19 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.4011911123D. Prylepa2.757116101LSep 19 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.5044111162A. Vasylets2.50111157113LSep 19 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.83114871M. Hubenko1.839111193WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971WSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191
Upcoming Matches
V. Tatarnykov
Nothing scheduled
S. Aristarkhov
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