TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012811311––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 79.3% is still 79.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
79.3%
79.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 74 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 79.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 4–37 Serhii Aristarkhov Oleksandr Ziakun has won 4 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-37 in 41
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 33 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1530 vs Aristarkhov 1634
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 60% vs Aristarkhov 40%
Ziakun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 50% vs Aristarkhov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun -1 · Aristarkhov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Aristarkhov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 3.75 / Aristarkhov 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13161833
Ziakun3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 90 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Aristarkhov1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 101 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 74 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun0wins
AwayAristarkhov10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun0%0 of 3
AwayAristarkhov100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun3Aristarkhov7n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S2Ziakun1Aristarkhov9n = 10Aristarkhov took 9 of 10
S3Ziakun2Aristarkhov8n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S4Ziakun3Aristarkhov3n = 6split evenly
S5Ziakun0Aristarkhov3n = 3Aristarkhov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunAristarkhovZ − ABasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.539.5−9.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 749 vs 323 / 59047.4%54.8%355 / 749 vs 323 / 590Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovZiakun 3.75/Aristarkhov 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun321110831S. Aristarkhov4281211113
LAug 23 · 09:30O. Ziakun39149971S. Aristarkhov45121111113
LAug 6 · 07:30O. Ziakun3854111172S. Aristarkhov47111177113
LAug 3 · 06:00O. Ziakun27511110S. Aristarkhov371113133
LJul 20 · 09:00O. Ziakun178450S. Aristarkhov331111113
LJul 17 · 10:30O. Ziakun4494111192S. Aristarkhov42111136113
LJun 28 · 07:00O. Ziakun29117831S. Aristarkhov3741111113
LJun 20 · 12:00O. Ziakun239950S. Aristarkhov331111113
LMay 16 · 17:10O. Ziakun198470S. Aristarkhov331111113
LMay 16 · 13:00O. Ziakun3761181112S. Aristarkhov46116117113
O. Ziakun10
LSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.6111127113O. Lyman2.209101171LSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.91612711112O. Kurylenko1.801110117133WSep 18 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.8051112113S. Maliuk1.911161081WSep 18 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.25111211123O. Syksa1.575148101WSep 18 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.101011911113D. Kuzmenko1.6712511572LSep 17 · 10:30O. Ziakun2.5041111121O. Syksa1.5011135143LSep 17 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.004990O. Kurylenko1.731111113WSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.571851012113O. Lyman2.251611121092LSep 17 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.6335130M. Hubenko1.441111153
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov1.8381030M. Hubenko1.831112113LSep 19 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2.201141192S. Aristarkhov1.61711991WSep 19 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.4011911123D. Prylepa2.757116101LSep 19 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.5044111162A. Vasylets2.50111157113LSep 19 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.83114871M. Hubenko1.839111193WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971WSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191WSep 13 · 13:00A. Vasylets2.50771181S. Aristarkhov1.5011115103LSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.