TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142012
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911911––––
Oleh Kurylenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 52–69 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Ziakun has won 52 of their 121 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-69 in 121
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 17 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1545 vs Kurylenko 1432
Ziakun
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 80% vs Kurylenko 20%
Ziakun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 70% vs Kurylenko 30%
Ziakun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +1 · Kurylenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurylenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 2.00 / Kurylenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ziakun)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142012
Ziakun2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 88 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back21% 30 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 73
Kurylenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it89% 71 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it79% 107 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun4wins
AwayKurylenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurylenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun60%3 of 5
AwayKurylenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ziakun6Kurylenko4n = 10Ziakun took 6 of 10
S3Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ziakun3Kurylenko6n = 9Kurylenko took 6 of 9
S5Ziakun1Kurylenko2n = 3Kurylenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunKurylenkoZ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.4−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 745 vs 490 / 99847.4%49.1%353 / 745 vs 490 / 998Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoZiakun 2.00/Kurylenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun26124371O. Kurylenko43101111113
LSep 3 · 07:30O. Ziakun33118771O. Kurylenko4181111113
LSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun38913881O. Kurylenko44111111113
WAug 31 · 06:00O. Ziakun45411811113O. Kurylenko4211811572
WAug 25 · 11:00O. Ziakun4011711113O. Kurylenko33911491
LAug 21 · 09:00O. Ziakun4371111772O. Kurylenko48116911113
WAug 19 · 07:30O. Ziakun331111113O. Kurylenko237970
WAug 13 · 07:30O. Ziakun4615713113O. Kurylenko4113111161
LAug 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun346111071O. Kurylenko4011612113
LAug 10 · 11:00O. Ziakun46101111592O. Kurylenko49129611113
O. Ziakun10
WSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.571851012113O. Lyman2.251611121092LSep 17 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.6335130M. Hubenko1.441111153WSep 17 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.44139128113S. Miroshnychenko2.631111101182WSep 15 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.73116711113S. Maliuk2.0091111922WSep 15 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.40119118113S. Miroshnychenko2.7571161162WSep 15 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.611112133O. Lyman2.20910110WSep 15 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.50131110123V. Ziakun2.5011812101WSep 15 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.1011213113D. Kuzmenko1.679111141LSep 11 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.83791141S. Maliuk1.8311118113LSep 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.009930D. Kuzmenko1.731111113
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 17 · 08:00O. Kurylenko3.251111910153M. Hubenko1.33751112132LSep 17 · 07:00O. Syksa1.61981111113O. Kurylenko2.2011117962LSep 17 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.67781171O. Lyman2.1011118113LSep 16 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.83121178122S. Maliuk1.831091111143LSep 16 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.361111133O. Kurylenko3.0064110WSep 16 · 07:30O. Syksa1.6111960O. Kurylenko2.201311113LSep 16 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.80511551D. Kuzmenko1.9111911113LSep 16 · 05:30A. Vasylets1.259111814143O. Kurylenko3.7511131612122LSep 14 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.80118281S. Maliuk1.9171111113WSep 14 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.67461191O. Kurylenko2.1011117113
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