TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136772
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleh Kurylenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119511511––
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 96–67 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 67 of their 163 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
96-67 in 163
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 29 in 163, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1434 vs Kuzmenko 1588
Kuzmenko
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 20% vs Kuzmenko 80%
Kuzmenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 40% vs Kuzmenko 60%
Kuzmenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko -2 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kuzmenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.80 / Kuzmenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136772
Kurylenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 156 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it89% 72 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it80% 109 of 137
Kuzmenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 105 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko4wins
AwayKuzmenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenko60%3 of 5
AwayKuzmenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurylenko4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S3Kurylenko5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurylenko3Kuzmenko4n = 7Kuzmenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoKuzmenkoKurylenko − KuzmenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.5+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 998 vs 384 / 92149.1%41.7%490 / 998 vs 384 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoKurylenko 1.80/Kuzmenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:30O. Kurylenko26511551D. Kuzmenko4211911113
WSep 14 · 05:30O. Kurylenko3911611113D. Kuzmenko30711571
LSep 11 · 05:30O. Kurylenko2511770D. Kuzmenko351311113
WSep 7 · 05:30O. Kurylenko331111113D. Kuzmenko185670
LSep 3 · 06:30O. Kurylenko48119711102D. Kuzmenko42511113123
WSep 2 · 11:00O. Kurylenko331111113D. Kuzmenko142930
LAug 27 · 05:30O. Kurylenko30391171D. Kuzmenko3711114113
LAug 25 · 05:30O. Kurylenko399711121D. Kuzmenko3611110143
WAug 24 · 11:30O. Kurylenko53914711123D. Kuzmenko511112117102
LAug 21 · 05:30O. Kurylenko28114941D. Kuzmenko4071111113
O. Kurylenko10
LSep 16 · 05:30A. Vasylets1.259111814143O. Kurylenko3.7511131612122LSep 14 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.80118281S. Maliuk1.9171111113WSep 14 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.67461191O. Kurylenko2.1011117113LSep 14 · 07:30M. Hubenko1.3311711133O. Kurylenko3.255118111LSep 14 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.1011128762O. Syksa1.674101111113WSep 14 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.00711571O. Kurylenko1.7311611113WSep 11 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.61114913113O. Lyman2.20811111192LSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870LSep 11 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.911181112113O. Kurylenko1.80131191062WSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 16 · 04:30O. Syksa1.531211113D. Kuzmenko2.3810290WSep 15 · 11:00S. Miroshnychenko2.75611891D. Kuzmenko1.4011211113WSep 15 · 10:00V. Ziakun3.503790D. Kuzmenko1.281111113WSep 15 · 08:30S. Maliuk2.105890D. Kuzmenko1.671111113WSep 15 · 06:30O. Lyman3.4071371152D. Kuzmenko1.301111119113LSep 15 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.1011213113D. Kuzmenko1.679111141WSep 14 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko2.381211123O. Syksa1.53109100LSep 14 · 09:00M. Hubenko1.331210511113D. Kuzmenko3.25101211222WSep 14 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.7311117113S. Maliuk2.00851161LSep 14 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.00711571O. Kurylenko1.7311611113
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