TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111327
Played Sep 11Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11138111191210116
Oleh Kurylenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ziakun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Ziakun at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 52–69 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Ziakun has won 52 of their 121 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-69 in 121
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 17 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1503 vs Kurylenko 1440
Ziakun
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 40% vs Kurylenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 50% vs Kurylenko 30%
Ziakun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +2 · Kurylenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ziakun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurylenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 1.91 / Kurylenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ziakun)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111327
Ziakun1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 89 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back21% 30 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kurylenko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 161 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it90% 75 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 113 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun4wins
AwayKurylenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurylenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun60%3 of 5
AwayKurylenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ziakun6Kurylenko4n = 10Ziakun took 6 of 10
S3Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ziakun3Kurylenko6n = 9Kurylenko took 6 of 9
S5Ziakun1Kurylenko2n = 3Kurylenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunKurylenkoZ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.4−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 750 vs 496 / 100347.2%49.5%354 / 750 vs 496 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZiakunZiakun 1.91/Kurylenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ziakun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ziakun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun—124371O. Kurylenko—101111113
LSep 3 · 07:30O. Ziakun—118771O. Kurylenko—81111113
LSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun—913881O. Kurylenko—111111113
WAug 31 · 06:00O. Ziakun—411811113O. Kurylenko—11811572
WAug 25 · 11:00O. Ziakun—11711113O. Kurylenko—911491
LAug 21 · 09:00O. Ziakun—71111772O. Kurylenko—116911113
WAug 19 · 07:30O. Ziakun—1111113O. Kurylenko—7970
WAug 13 · 07:30O. Ziakun—15713113O. Kurylenko—13111161
LAug 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun—6111071O. Kurylenko—11612113
LAug 10 · 11:00O. Ziakun—101111592O. Kurylenko—129611113
O. Ziakun10
LSep 11 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.83791141S. Maliuk1.8311118113LSep 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.009930D. Kuzmenko1.731111113WSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571511113O. Lyman2.2513970WSep 11 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.2011117113O. Syksa1.61851191LSep 9 · 11:00S. Chuhai1.33111111113O. Ziakun3.25613771LSep 9 · 10:00O. Syksa1.5713913123O. Ziakun2.25111111101LSep 9 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.4471111113O. Ziakun2.63117251WSep 9 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.44731151O. Ziakun2.6311115113LSep 9 · 04:30D. Kuzmenko1.7371111113O. Ziakun2.00115761WSep 8 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.50911911123V. Ziakun2.50118119102
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 11 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.61114913113O. Lyman2.20811111192LSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870WSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142LSep 11 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko1.911311113O. Kurylenko1.8011770LSep 10 · 11:00O. Kurylenko2.1011119982D. Prylepa1.67991111113WSep 10 · 09:00S. Miroshnychenko2.635111031O. Kurylenko1.4411612113LSep 10 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.731010131192S. Maliuk2.001212119113LSep 10 · 07:00O. Syksa1.611213113O. Kurylenko2.20101180LSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.61611171O. Lyman2.2011116113LSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.61820111142O. Lyman2.201118134113
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