TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111264
Played Sep 11Finished
Oleh Kurylenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1184119111311119
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 58.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 50–35 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 35 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-35 in 85
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 15 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1430 vs Lyman 1422
Kurylenko
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 20% vs Lyman 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 20% vs Lyman 50%
Lyman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko -2 · Lyman -4
Lyman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kurylenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.61 / Lyman 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kurylenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111264
Kurylenko1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 161 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it90% 75 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 113 of 139
Lyman2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 60 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko3wins
AwayLyman7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLyman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLyman77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko1Lyman9n = 10Lyman took 9 of 10
S2Kurylenko4Lyman6n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S3Kurylenko5Lyman5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurylenko2Lyman3n = 5Lyman took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoLymanK − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.236.6−5.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1002 vs 275 / 61849.4%44.5%495 / 1002 vs 275 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKurylenko 1.61/Lyman 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko—611171O. Lyman—11116113
LSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko—820111142O. Lyman—1118134113
LSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko—4860O. Lyman—1111113
WSep 3 · 05:30O. Kurylenko—411119113O. Lyman—11571192
LAug 27 · 09:00O. Kurylenko—7101141O. Lyman—1112553
LAug 25 · 09:00O. Kurylenko—81010O. Lyman—1112113
WAug 19 · 11:30O. Kurylenko—51111113O. Lyman—118681
WJun 17 · 05:30O. Kurylenko—1413113O. Lyman—121140
LJun 12 · 06:30O. Kurylenko—7570O. Lyman—1111113
LJun 10 · 09:30O. Kurylenko—10760O. Lyman—1211113
O. Kurylenko10
LSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870LSep 11 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.911181112113O. Kurylenko1.80131191062WSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142LSep 11 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko1.911311113O. Kurylenko1.8011770LSep 10 · 11:00O. Kurylenko2.1011119982D. Prylepa1.67991111113WSep 10 · 09:00S. Miroshnychenko2.635111031O. Kurylenko1.4411612113LSep 10 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.731010131192S. Maliuk2.001212119113LSep 10 · 07:00O. Syksa1.611213113O. Kurylenko2.20101180LSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.61611171O. Lyman2.2011116113LSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.61820111142O. Lyman2.201118134113
O. Lyman10
LSep 11 · 10:00O. Lyman4.501196101O. Syksa1.1771111123LSep 11 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.3011119113O. Lyman3.40861151LSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571511113O. Lyman2.2513970LSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.501111113O. Lyman2.509650WSep 10 · 11:30O. Lyman2.50911117113S. Maliuk1.5011991182LSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.339680WSep 10 · 07:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00811681O. Lyman1.3611711113WSep 10 · 06:30O. Lyman3.25111169113D. Prylepa1.3338111192WSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.61611171O. Lyman2.2011116113WSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.61820111142O. Lyman2.201118134113
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