TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110939
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116911115––
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitro Kuzmenko above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 73.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dmitro Kuzmenko 41–23 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 23 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kuzmenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-23 in 64
Kuzmenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1544 vs Lyman 1436
Kuzmenko
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 40% vs Lyman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 40% vs Lyman 60%
Lyman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko +2 · Lyman -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 1.30 / Lyman 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13110939
Kuzmenko1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 99 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 92
Lyman3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 60 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko9wins
AwayLyman1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko88.9%8 of 9
AwayLymann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko9Lyman1n = 10Kuzmenko took 9 of 10
S2Kuzmenko7Lyman3n = 10Kuzmenko took 7 of 10
S3Kuzmenko8Lyman2n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S4Kuzmenko3Lyman1n = 4Kuzmenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoLymanK − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.429.3+8.1per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 918 vs 275 / 61641%44.6%376 / 918 vs 275 / 616Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoKuzmenko 1.30/Lyman 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 07:30D. Kuzmenko—1311113O. Lyman—11770
LAug 25 · 07:30D. Kuzmenko—118961O. Lyman—41111113
WAug 22 · 12:00D. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Lyman—8880
WJun 17 · 09:30D. Kuzmenko—11911113O. Lyman—711691
WJun 15 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Lyman—6890
WJun 12 · 08:30D. Kuzmenko—1111113O. Lyman—9550
WJun 10 · 08:30D. Kuzmenko—1111143O. Lyman—58120
WJun 6 · 14:30D. Kuzmenko—12811113O. Lyman—1011871
WMay 29 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko—1411143O. Lyman—124120
WMay 27 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko—711611123O. Lyman—114117102
D. Kuzmenko10
WSep 11 · 07:00S. Maliuk1.91610100D. Kuzmenko1.801112123WSep 11 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko1.911311113O. Kurylenko1.8011770LSep 9 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.4011146101M. Hubenko1.30131211123LSep 9 · 09:00D. Kuzmenko6.506490S. Chuhai1.101111113LSep 9 · 07:30D. Kuzmenko2.25641161A. Vasylets1.5711116113LSep 9 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko2.1011117772O. Syksa1.67881111113WSep 9 · 04:30D. Kuzmenko1.7371111113O. Ziakun2.00115761LSep 7 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko6.007580S. Chuhai1.111111113LSep 7 · 09:00D. Prylepa1.5311119113D. Kuzmenko2.38961161WSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440
O. Lyman10
LSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571511113O. Lyman2.2513970LSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.501111113O. Lyman2.509650WSep 10 · 11:30O. Lyman2.50911117113S. Maliuk1.5011991182LSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.339680WSep 10 · 07:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00811681O. Lyman1.3611711113WSep 10 · 06:30O. Lyman3.25111169113D. Prylepa1.3338111192WSep 10 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.61611171O. Lyman2.2011116113WSep 8 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.61820111142O. Lyman2.201118134113WSep 8 · 10:00S. Miroshnychenko2.7551160O. Lyman1.401113113LSep 8 · 08:30V. Ziakun3.501110611113O. Lyman1.2871211852
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