TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111044
Played Sep 11Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911118411––
Serhii Maliuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 37–35 Serhii Maliuk Serhii Maliuk has won 35 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-35 in 72
Ziakun
Wrong
gap of 2 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1515 vs Maliuk 1503
Ziakun
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 60% vs Maliuk 40%
Ziakun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 50% vs Maliuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun -1 · Maliuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ziakun) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maliuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 1.83 / Maliuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ziakun)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111044
Ziakun1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Maliuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun6wins
AwayMaliuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZiakun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun100%5 of 5
AwayMaliuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Ziakun5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Ziakun5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Ziakun5Maliuk3n = 8Ziakun took 5 of 8
S5Ziakun2Maliuk1n = 3Ziakun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunMaliukZ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.6+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 749 vs 249 / 50147.3%49.7%354 / 749 vs 249 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZiakunZiakun 1.83/Maliuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ziakun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:30O. Ziakun—11811113S. Maliuk—711881
WSep 3 · 10:30O. Ziakun—6121014113S. Maliuk—1110121282
LAug 26 · 10:30O. Ziakun—671391S. Maliuk—111111113
WAug 25 · 10:00O. Ziakun—11119113S. Maliuk—791191
LAug 19 · 04:30O. Ziakun—881171S. Maliuk—11118113
WAug 14 · 05:00O. Ziakun—13118123S. Maliuk—11511101
WAug 13 · 04:30O. Ziakun—1111113S. Maliuk—8950
LAug 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun—8840S. Maliuk—1111113
WAug 4 · 04:30O. Ziakun—116119123S. Maliuk—911511102
LJul 30 · 04:30O. Ziakun—81481172S. Maliuk—1112115113
O. Ziakun10
LSep 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.009930D. Kuzmenko1.731111113WSep 11 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.911181112113O. Kurylenko1.80131191062WSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571511113O. Lyman2.2513970WSep 11 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.2011117113O. Syksa1.61851191LSep 9 · 11:00S. Chuhai1.33111111113O. Ziakun3.25613771LSep 9 · 10:00O. Syksa1.5713913123O. Ziakun2.25111111101LSep 9 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.4471111113O. Ziakun2.63117251WSep 9 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.44731151O. Ziakun2.6311115113LSep 9 · 04:30D. Kuzmenko1.7371111113O. Ziakun2.00115761WSep 8 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.50911911123V. Ziakun2.50118119102
S. Maliuk10
WSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870LSep 11 · 08:30S. Maliuk2.101281111102O. Syksa1.671011713123LSep 11 · 07:00S. Maliuk1.91610100D. Kuzmenko1.801112123WSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.501111113O. Lyman2.509650LSep 10 · 11:30O. Lyman2.50911117113S. Maliuk1.5011991182WSep 10 · 10:00S. Maliuk2.10111111113D. Prylepa1.67613861WSep 10 · 08:00O. Kurylenko1.731010131192S. Maliuk2.001212119113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Miroshnychenko2.751139121S. Maliuk1.4091111143LSep 10 · 05:00O. Syksa1.6111119143S. Maliuk2.209711121LSep 8 · 11:30S. Maliuk1.409111751S. Miroshnychenko2.7511419113
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