TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130348
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111311711119511
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:14 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 96 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 76.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 23–45 Dmitro Kuzmenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 23 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kuzmenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-45 in 68
Kuzmenko
Correct
gap of 22 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1414 vs Kuzmenko 1572
Kuzmenko
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 20% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Kuzmenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 40% vs Kuzmenko 60%
Kuzmenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman +1 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kuzmenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 3.40 / Kuzmenko 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130348
Lyman3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 57 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Kuzmenko1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 96 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it81% 72 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman1wins
AwayKuzmenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLymann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKuzmenko88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman1Kuzmenko9n = 10Kuzmenko took 9 of 10
S2Lyman3Kuzmenko7n = 10Kuzmenko took 7 of 10
S3Lyman2Kuzmenko8n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S4Lyman2Kuzmenko3n = 5Kuzmenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKuzmenkoL − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match28.337.4−9.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 616 vs 380 / 91844.3%41.4%273 / 616 vs 380 / 918Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoLyman 3.40/Kuzmenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:30O. Lyman4371371152D. Kuzmenko531111119113
LSep 11 · 08:00O. Lyman30861151D. Kuzmenko4211119113
LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman198560D. Kuzmenko331111113
LSep 1 · 05:00O. Lyman30118291D. Kuzmenko3631111113
LAug 27 · 07:30O. Lyman2511770D. Kuzmenko351311113
WAug 25 · 07:30O. Lyman3741111113D. Kuzmenko34118961
LAug 22 · 12:00O. Lyman248880D. Kuzmenko331111113
LJun 17 · 09:30O. Lyman33711691D. Kuzmenko4211911113
LJun 15 · 06:00O. Lyman236890D. Kuzmenko331111113
LJun 12 · 08:30O. Lyman199550D. Kuzmenko331111113
O. Lyman10
WSep 15 · 05:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00912991O. Lyman1.36111011113LSep 11 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.61114913113O. Lyman2.20811111192LSep 11 · 10:00O. Lyman4.501196101O. Syksa1.1771111123LSep 11 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.3011119113O. Lyman3.40861151LSep 11 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571511113O. Lyman2.2513970LSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.501111113O. Lyman2.509650WSep 10 · 11:30O. Lyman2.50911117113S. Maliuk1.5011991182LSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.339680WSep 10 · 07:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00811681O. Lyman1.3611711113WSep 10 · 06:30O. Lyman3.25111169113D. Prylepa1.3338111192
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 15 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.1011213113D. Kuzmenko1.679111141WSep 14 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko2.381211123O. Syksa1.53109100LSep 14 · 09:00M. Hubenko1.331210511113D. Kuzmenko3.25101211222WSep 14 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.7311117113S. Maliuk2.00851161LSep 14 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.531115911113D. Kuzmenko2.38131311732LSep 14 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.00711571O. Kurylenko1.7311611113WSep 11 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko2.1091111133O. Syksa1.671159111WSep 11 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.009930D. Kuzmenko1.731111113WSep 11 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.3011119113O. Lyman3.40861151WSep 11 · 07:00S. Maliuk1.91610100D. Kuzmenko1.801112123
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