TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126199
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleh Kurylenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811211811––
Serhii Maliuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 52–43 Serhii Maliuk Serhii Maliuk has won 43 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:32What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-43 in 95
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1458 vs Maliuk 1476
Maliuk
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 60% vs Maliuk 20%
Kurylenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 40% vs Maliuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko +1 · Maliuk -4
Maliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maliuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.80 / Maliuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurylenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126199
Kurylenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 156 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it89% 72 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it80% 109 of 136
Maliuk1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 83 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko4wins
AwayMaliuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaliuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenko40%2 of 5
AwayMaliuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurylenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurylenko4Maliuk6n = 10Maliuk took 6 of 10
S4Kurylenko2Maliuk5n = 7Maliuk took 5 of 7
S5Kurylenko2Maliuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoMaliukK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.2−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 997 vs 250 / 50649.4%49.4%492 / 997 vs 250 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKurylenko 1.80/Maliuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 09:30O. Kurylenko227870S. Maliuk331111113
LSep 10 · 08:00O. Kurylenko531010131192S. Maliuk551212119113
LSep 8 · 05:30O. Kurylenko4211114792S. Maliuk45751111113
LSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko179620S. Maliuk331111113
WSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko3851111113S. Maliuk33117781
WSep 3 · 09:30O. Kurylenko331111113S. Maliuk238780
LAug 27 · 07:00O. Kurylenko4111118111S. Maliuk4691311133
WAug 25 · 08:00O. Kurylenko48111187113S. Maliuk4397111152
WAug 19 · 06:30O. Kurylenko48612118113S. Maliuk44111031192
LAug 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko30118651S. Maliuk3741111113
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 14 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.67461191O. Kurylenko2.1011117113LSep 14 · 07:30M. Hubenko1.3311711133O. Kurylenko3.255118111LSep 14 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.1011128762O. Syksa1.674101111113WSep 14 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.00711571O. Kurylenko1.7311611113WSep 11 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.61114913113O. Lyman2.20811111192LSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870LSep 11 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.911181112113O. Kurylenko1.80131191062WSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142LSep 11 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko1.911311113O. Kurylenko1.8011770LSep 10 · 11:00O. Kurylenko2.1011119982D. Prylepa1.67991111113
S. Maliuk10
LSep 14 · 10:00S. Maliuk2.105117101O. Syksa1.6711711123LSep 14 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.7311117113S. Maliuk2.00851161LSep 14 · 06:00M. Hubenko1.531111163S. Maliuk2.3889140LSep 14 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.7311116113S. Maliuk2.00961171WSep 11 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.83791141S. Maliuk1.8311118113WSep 11 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.911111113O. Kurylenko1.807870LSep 11 · 08:30S. Maliuk2.101281111102O. Syksa1.671011713123LSep 11 · 07:00S. Maliuk1.91610100D. Kuzmenko1.801112123WSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.501111113O. Lyman2.509650LSep 10 · 11:30O. Lyman2.50911117113S. Maliuk1.5011991182
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