TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611711115811
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 71.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 16–6 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-6 in 22
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1634 vs Kuzmenko 1535
Aristarkhov
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 40% vs Kuzmenko 80%
Kuzmenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 50% vs Kuzmenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +1 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.36 / Kuzmenko 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13160855
Aristarkhov1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 101 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 74 of 88
Kuzmenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 107 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back18% 30 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov8wins
AwayKuzmenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov87.5%7 of 8
AwayKuzmenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov8Kuzmenko2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S2Aristarkhov6Kuzmenko4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S3Aristarkhov7Kuzmenko3n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S4Aristarkhov4Kuzmenko2n = 6Aristarkhov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoA − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.832.0+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 590 vs 387 / 92754.8%41.8%323 / 590 vs 387 / 927Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.36/Kuzmenko 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 22 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov351111761D. Kuzmenko3813311113
WAug 16 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov43111011113D. Kuzmenko35912681
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko149140
WAug 3 · 07:30S. Aristarkhov3912511113D. Kuzmenko351011681
WJul 25 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov51119911113D. Kuzmenko4891111892
LJul 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov48119117102D. Kuzmenko47611711123
WJul 4 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko217860
WJun 6 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko197930
WMay 17 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov4314117113D. Kuzmenko311261121
S. Aristarkhov10
WSep 20 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2.2578111162S. Aristarkhov1.57111188113WSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113LSep 20 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov1.8381030M. Hubenko1.831112113LSep 19 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2.201141192S. Aristarkhov1.61711991WSep 19 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.4011911123D. Prylepa2.757116101LSep 19 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.5044111162A. Vasylets2.50111157113LSep 19 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.83114871M. Hubenko1.839111193WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971WSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 20 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.3311811113D. Kuzmenko3.25711971WSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123WSep 18 · 10:00O. Syksa1.619740D. Kuzmenko2.201111113WSep 18 · 08:30O. Lyman3.0096111192D. Kuzmenko1.36111176113LSep 18 · 06:30S. Maliuk2.001111113D. Kuzmenko1.736430LSep 18 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.101011911113D. Kuzmenko1.6712511572LSep 16 · 11:00A. Vasylets1.531111113D. Kuzmenko2.385870LSep 16 · 10:00S. Maliuk2.2011116113D. Kuzmenko1.61471161LSep 16 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.368121111113D. Kuzmenko3.0011145232
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