TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210711116––
Ihor Kvak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Kvak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Ihor Kvak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ihor Kvak at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 1–1 Ihor Kvak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 12h before this match
Kvak beat Palii 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kvak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Palii 1541 vs Kvak 1450
Palii
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 60% vs Kvak 40%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 60% vs Kvak 40%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +1 · Kvak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Palii) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 1.91 / Kvak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Palii)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161026
Palii1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 18 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back38% 8 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Kvak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePalii1wins
AwayKvak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPaliiKvakP − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.038.5+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiKvakBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 192 vs 34 / 6557.8%52.3%111 / 192 vs 34 / 65Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.734.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPalii 1.91/Kvak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 04:55D. Palii4111127113I. Kvak347101161
LSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii4581171182I. Kvak43115115113
D. Palii10
WSep 19 · 17:55S. Prus2.2011711932D. Palii1.6181141183LSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii1.7381171182I. Kvak2.00115115113LSep 19 · 15:55D. Palii1.83211501M. Slozka1.8311611103LSep 19 · 14:25D. Palii1.611286101O. Sydorchuk2.20101111102WSep 19 · 12:25D. Palii2.38101111113T. Gil1.53128891WSep 19 · 01:22M. Slozka1.281191371D. Palii3.5041115113LSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 23:15O. Sydorchuk2.201211911112D. Palii1.61149115133WSep 18 · 22:15S. Prus2.101141061D. Palii1.6751112113WSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko1.7313119141D. Palii2.0015711163
I. Kvak10
LSep 19 · 18:55I. Kvak3.509730T. Gil1.281111113WSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii1.7381171182I. Kvak2.00115115113LSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.8311118123I. Kvak1.834411101WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360LSep 5 · 16:55O. Hudyma1.50131179163I. Kvak2.501151111142LSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus3.401111113I. Kvak1.306380LSep 5 · 13:55I. Kvak2.3811114842I. Pytsko1.53761111113WSep 5 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.80131111642I. Kvak1.91157911103
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.