TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9118111191210114
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 96 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 59.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 18–31 Jakub Pilch Matyas Navedla has won 18 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:31What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-31 in 49
Pilch
Wrong
gap of 13 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1711 vs Pilch 1781
Pilch
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 60% vs Pilch 80%
Pilch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 40% vs Pilch 60%
Pilch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +2 · Pilch +4
Pilch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.00 / Pilch 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pilch)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159781
Navedla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back24% 38 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 72
Pilch1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 50 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla2wins
AwayPilch8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla33.3%1 of 3
AwayPilch85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla3Pilch7n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10
S2Navedla6Pilch4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Navedla4Pilch6n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S4Navedla2Pilch5n = 7Pilch took 5 of 7
S5Navedla1Pilch4n = 5Pilch took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaPilchN − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.7−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 780 vs 228 / 45147.4%50.6%370 / 780 vs 228 / 451Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchNavedla 2.00/Pilch 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla376116141J. Pilch4411611163
LSep 13 · 16:30M. Navedla335117101J. Pilch4211811123
LSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla54111514862J. Pilch609171211113
LSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla177460J. Pilch331111113
LSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2781090J. Pilch341112113
WSep 8 · 08:58M. Navedla351113113J. Pilch2991190
LSep 8 · 08:30M. Navedla4111511952J. Pilch48811711113
LSep 7 · 12:30M. Navedla44611512102J. Pilch501161110123
WJul 15 · 17:13M. Navedla5613111011113J. Pilch4615712662
LJul 15 · 14:30M. Navedla44511111072J. Pilch51119812113
M. Navedla10
WSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50118681M. Navedla2.5091111113WSep 19 · 21:00M. Navedla1.601111119113M. Cabis2.1081391132LSep 19 · 20:30P. Wawrosz1.73118116113M. Navedla2.0081171182LSep 19 · 19:30M. Navedla2.3881211942M. Vavrecka1.531110911113WSep 19 · 18:30M. Cabis1.44116861M. Navedla2.6351111113LSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440WSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky2.007790M. Navedla1.731111113
J. Pilch10
LSep 20 · 16:00T. Dousek1.53891111113J. Pilch2.3811114862WSep 20 · 14:30J. Pilch2.10511511113M. Grundel1.6711711782WSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 16:00M. Cabis1.806811101J. Pilch1.9111118123WSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100WSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
J. Pilch
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