TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911114118116
Jakub Pilch
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 64.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 8–6 Jakub Pilch Jakub Pilch has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Dousek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1852 vs Pilch 1765
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Pilch 80%
Pilch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Pilch 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +1 · Pilch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.53 / Pilch 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Dousek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159814
Dousek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 108 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 82 of 108
Pilch2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek6wins
AwayPilch4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek83.3%5 of 6
AwayPilch75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek6Pilch4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Dousek5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousek6Pilch3n = 9Dousek took 6 of 9
S4Dousek2Pilch3n = 5Pilch took 3 of 5
S5Dousek2Pilch1n = 3Dousek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekPilchD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.6+3.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 481 vs 228 / 45253%50.4%255 / 481 vs 228 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.53/Pilch 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek331111113J. Pilch269980
WJul 21 · 10:30T. Dousek4211911113J. Pilch23411441
WJun 12 · 10:00T. Dousek331111113J. Pilch194780
WFeb 23 · 11:30T. Dousek38411111113J. Pilch4511981162
LDec 29 · 14:01T. Dousek30114961J. Pilch3961111113
LDec 29 · 12:00T. Dousek4481151192J. Pilch50119118113
WDec 23 · 12:00T. Dousek53119148113J. Pilch51911121182
LDec 6 · 11:30T. Dousek258890J. Pilch331111113
WNov 9 · 11:00T. Dousek331111113J. Pilch160970
T. Dousek10
WSep 20 · 15:30M. Grundel2.2571450T. Dousek1.571116113LSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50118681M. Navedla2.5091111113WSep 19 · 16:59T. Dousek1.67911117123T. Zika2.10119611102LSep 19 · 16:00T. Dousek2.25111011392M. Biolek1.57912611113LSep 19 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.911111113T. Dousek1.803330WSep 19 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50741113113T. Zika2.50111191162WSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek1.28111110113R. Polasek3.50361281LSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113WSep 16 · 19:00T. Dousek1.67811117113T. Zika2.1011581172LSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101
J. Pilch10
LSep 20 · 15:00M. Navedla2.00981112113J. Pilch1.73111191042WSep 20 · 14:30J. Pilch2.10511511113M. Grundel1.6711711782WSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 16:00M. Cabis1.806811101J. Pilch1.9111118123WSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100WSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113
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