TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111416511––––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 64 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 60.2%
64 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 2–4 Tomas Dousek Matej Grundel has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Dousek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1750 vs Dousek 1834
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 20% vs Dousek 40%
Dousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 40% vs Dousek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel -4 · Dousek -1
Grundel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 2.25 / Dousek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Dousek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159813
Grundel2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 26 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Dousek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 108 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 82 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGrundel2wins
AwayDousek4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderDousek leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel66.7%2 of 3
AwayDousek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel3Dousek3n = 6split evenly
S2Grundel2Dousek4n = 6Dousek took 4 of 6
S3Grundel3Dousek3n = 6split evenly
S4Grundel1Dousek4n = 5Dousek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGrundelDousekG − DBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.538.8−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 320 vs 254 / 48052.5%52.9%168 / 320 vs 254 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekGrundel 2.25/Dousek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJun 10 · 16:30M. Grundel419118131T. Dousek4011311153
LMay 27 · 16:00M. Grundel361141381T. Dousek4361115113
WMay 8 · 10:00M. Grundel331111113T. Dousek183690
WMay 3 · 11:30M. Grundel5511101211113T. Dousek5191214792
LApr 22 · 17:30M. Grundel35971181T. Dousek4111118113
LApr 22 · 15:00M. Grundel25561131T. Dousek4011117113
M. Grundel10
LSep 20 · 14:30J. Pilch2.10511511113M. Grundel1.6711711782LSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100LSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:30R. Polasek1.501111113M. Grundel2.507260WSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162
T. Dousek10
WSep 20 · 16:00T. Dousek1.53891111113J. Pilch2.3811114862LSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50118681M. Navedla2.5091111113WSep 19 · 16:59T. Dousek1.67911117123T. Zika2.10119611102LSep 19 · 16:00T. Dousek2.25111011392M. Biolek1.57912611113LSep 19 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.911111113T. Dousek1.803330WSep 19 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50741113113T. Zika2.50111191162WSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek1.28111110113R. Polasek3.50361281LSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113WSep 16 · 19:00T. Dousek1.67811117113T. Zika2.1011581172LSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101
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