TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1199118111311811
Matej Grundel
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 102 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Matej Grundel at 57.8%
102 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 16–21 Matej Grundel Matyas Navedla has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Grundel
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1727 vs Grundel 1732
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 60% vs Grundel 0%
Navedla
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 40% vs Grundel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +3 · Grundel -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grundel) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.00 / Grundel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grundel)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159780
Navedla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back24% 38 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 72
Grundel1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 57 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla6wins
AwayGrundel4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNavedla leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrundel42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla3Grundel7n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S2Navedla7Grundel3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S3Navedla6Grundel4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Navedla6Grundel3n = 9Navedla took 6 of 9
S5Navedla3Grundel3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaGrundelN − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.7+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime371 / 781 vs 168 / 32147.5%52.3%371 / 781 vs 168 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelNavedla 2.00/Grundel 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 16:30M. Navedla4361161192M. Grundel37113111113
WJul 11 · 14:30M. Navedla4131114133M. Grundel4011612111
LJul 11 · 12:00M. Navedla29561171M. Grundel4011117113
LJul 8 · 14:30M. Navedla4689111172M. Grundel47111186113
WJul 3 · 15:30M. Navedla48851111133M. Grundel41111162112
WJun 28 · 06:00M. Navedla501011711113M. Grundel4212511682
WJun 24 · 17:30M. Navedla4181111113M. Grundel30114961
LJun 24 · 14:00M. Navedla4311117592M. Grundel41711111113
WJun 17 · 16:00M. Navedla511111117113M. Grundel4869131192
WJun 1 · 14:00M. Navedla331111113M. Grundel218850
M. Navedla10
LSep 20 · 17:29M. Navedla2.3811571132T. Dousek1.53511119113WSep 20 · 15:00M. Navedla2.00981112113J. Pilch1.73111191042WSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50118681M. Navedla2.5091111113WSep 19 · 21:00M. Navedla1.601111119113M. Cabis2.1081391132LSep 19 · 20:30P. Wawrosz1.73118116113M. Navedla2.0081171182LSep 19 · 19:30M. Navedla2.3881211942M. Vavrecka1.531110911113WSep 19 · 18:30M. Cabis1.44116861M. Navedla2.6351111113LSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163
M. Grundel10
LSep 20 · 17:00J. Pilch1.911111113M. Grundel1.804990LSep 20 · 15:30M. Grundel2.2571450T. Dousek1.571116113LSep 20 · 14:30J. Pilch2.10511511113M. Grundel1.6711711782LSep 18 · 16:59J. Pilch1.831311123M. Grundel1.83118100LSep 18 · 16:00M. Grundel1.73651161J. Pilch2.0011119113LSep 18 · 15:30R. Polasek1.501111113M. Grundel2.507260WSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
M. Grundel
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