TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012119811––
Radoslaw Chrzescian
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadoslaw Chrzescian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGracjan Kesik above · Radoslaw Chrzescian below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Radoslaw Chrzescian at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Gracjan Kesik 2–0 Radoslaw Chrzescian Radoslaw Chrzescian has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chrzescian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1494 vs Chrzescian 1682
Chrzescian
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 40% vs Chrzescian 80%
Chrzescian
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 30% vs Chrzescian 90%
Chrzescian
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -1 · Chrzescian +4
Chrzescian
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chrzescian) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chrzescian form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 2.20 / Chrzescian 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chrzescian)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159325
Kesik2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 57 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back34% 23 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Chrzescian1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite77% won 67 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKesik2wins
AwayChrzescian0wins
Kesik leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKesikChrzescianK − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.027.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikChrzescianBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 605 vs 187 / 35453.7%52.8%325 / 605 vs 187 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChrzescianKesik 2.20/Chrzescian 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Chrzescian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chrzescian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMay 3 · 14:15G. Kesik331111113R. Chrzescian258980
WApr 19 · 10:30G. Kesik4111118113R. Chrzescian29481161
G. Kesik10
LSep 20 · 06:55G. Kesik3.003710G. Poliniewicz1.361111113WSep 20 · 05:40G. Kesik1.83711811113M. Minda1.8311511552LSep 20 · 04:10G. Kesik1.918890R. Stapor1.801111113LSep 20 · 03:00G. Kesik2.1095100D. Solilo1.671111123WSep 13 · 20:05L. Pietraszko1.53631291G. Kesik2.38111110113LSep 13 · 19:15D. Jadam1.6171111113G. Kesik2.20115691LSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132WSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252LSep 13 · 14:15G. Kesik1.517101161M. Piecowski2.2911127113
R. Chrzescian10
WSep 20 · 07:20R. Chrzescian1.73111110113D. Solilo2.00791291WSep 20 · 06:05G. Poliniewicz1.6781191182R. Chrzescian2.10118119113WSep 20 · 04:55M. Minda2.5078100R. Chrzescian1.501111123WSep 20 · 03:25R. Stapor2.50811351R. Chrzescian1.5011911113LSep 19 · 20:30B. Sulkowski3.251111311113R. Chrzescian1.3376111372WSep 19 · 19:15R. Chrzescian1.73811117113P. Blocho2.0011891192WSep 19 · 18:05P. Maruszak2.75811641R. Chrzescian1.4011811113WSep 19 · 16:55M. Woskowicz2.7531070R. Chrzescian1.401112113WSep 19 · 15:25A. Wos2.10810110R. Chrzescian1.671112133WSep 19 · 13:50B. Mleczko2.6511811782R. Chrzescian1.40611611113
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