TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156327
Played Sep 18Finished
Filip Cernota
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111178111181618
David Jicha
Away
1.87
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Cernota above · David Jicha below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 16-18
Point 106 set 5, 16-18 — our read held Filip Cernota at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Filip Cernota 49–38 David Jicha David Jicha has won 38 of their 87 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cernota beat Jicha 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Cernota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-38 in 87
Cernota
Wrong
gap of 11 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernota 1768 vs Jicha 1785
Jicha
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernota 80% vs Jicha 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernota 80% vs Jicha 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernota +1 · Jicha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jicha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernota 1.83 / Jicha 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cernota)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13156327
Cernota1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 16 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Jicha1.87
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 11 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernota7wins
AwayJicha3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCernota leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernota87.5%7 of 8
AwayJichan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernota8Jicha2n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S2Cernota4Jicha6n = 10Jicha took 6 of 10
S3Cernota7Jicha3n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Cernota5Jicha3n = 8Cernota took 5 of 8
S5Cernota2Jicha2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernotaJichaC − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.3+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernotaJichaBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 175 vs 172 / 33857.7%50.9%101 / 175 vs 172 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaCernota 1.83/Jicha 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jicha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 18:50F. Cernota46117512113D. Jicha45611111072
LFeb 26 · 21:50F. Cernota50111113782D. Jicha50491511113
LDec 5 · 19:31F. Cernota4293111182D. Jicha47111159113
WDec 5 · 18:25F. Cernota4111811113D. Jicha34811961
WOct 27 · 23:45F. Cernota341211113D. Jicha2810990
WOct 27 · 20:05F. Cernota48128116113D. Jicha42101111192
WOct 24 · 22:30F. Cernota331111113D. Jicha208570
WOct 24 · 20:25F. Cernota4011411143D. Jicha367116121
LOct 17 · 18:00F. Cernota3861110111D. Jicha4311712133
WOct 17 · 17:25F. Cernota4111712113D. Jicha388111091
F. Cernota10
WSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:20M. Stusek1.731111113F. Cernota2.009680WSep 18 · 18:50D. Jicha2.00611111072F. Cernota1.73117512113WSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota1.6711129113T. Vorisek2.108101151WSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113WSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741
D. Jicha10
WSep 18 · 20:20M. Stusek2.2571120D. Jicha1.571113113WSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113LSep 18 · 18:50D. Jicha2.00611111072F. Cernota1.73117512113WSep 7 · 18:25D. Jicha2.101311113T. Vorisek1.6711760WSep 7 · 17:25D. Jicha1.731211113T. Vorisek2.0010660WSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113WSep 7 · 15:25T. Flicek2.0017111172D. Jicha1.73111169113WSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162
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