TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13152922
Played Sep 18Finished
Kamil Durak
Home
1.19
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198116111210116
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
3.45
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched — 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeKamil Durak to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Durak above · Jakub Kaczmarek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Kamil Durak at 77.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Durak 2–0 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (74%)
Durak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Durak 1539 vs Kaczmarek 1395
Durak
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durak 100% vs Kaczmarek 80%
Durak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durak 90% vs Kaczmarek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Durak +6 · Kaczmarek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Durak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurak 1.19 / Kaczmarek 3.45
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Durak)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13152922
Durak1.19
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 36 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Kaczmarek3.45
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog33% won 160 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back17% 54 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDurak2wins
AwayKaczmarek0wins
Durak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDurakKaczmarekD − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.526.0+9.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurakKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 72 vs 486 / 131572.2%37%52 / 72 vs 486 / 1315Avg sets wonper match2.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurakDurak 1.19/Kaczmarek 3.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.2%
Durak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Durak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 14 · 22:55K. Durak381311143J. Kaczmarek30117120
WJul 14 · 16:55K. Durak331111113J. Kaczmarek228950
K. Durak10
LSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642WSep 18 · 15:50I. Szymanski4.333320K. Durak1.201111113WSep 11 · 02:20K. Durak1.221311113R. Komandzik3.7011370WSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113WSep 10 · 23:10K. Durak1.6011711123J. Nowak2.207114101LSep 10 · 22:00K. Durak1.77912781P. Brozek1.93111011113WSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101WSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 18 · 16:55I. Szymanski4.009980J. Kaczmarek1.221111113WSep 18 · 15:25K. Hetnar1.25781181J. Kaczmarek3.7511119113WSep 18 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek3.301114113P. Polok1.2791290LSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113WSep 18 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.351181110123M. Adamus1.52511812102WSep 18 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.5511118113P. Kurek1.45331171WSep 18 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.3291111153Y. Fomin1.491197131WSep 16 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz1.769590J. Kaczmarek1.901111113WSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113LSep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.299111110113J. Kaczmarek3.1011581272
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