TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145348
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61112101210911117
Petr Banot
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:52 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Kaspar to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Petr Banot below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Michal Kaspar at 56.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 3–1 Petr Banot Petr Banot has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kaspar beat Banot 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:52What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kaspar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kaspar
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1268 vs Banot 1338
Banot
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 60% vs Banot 40%
Kaspar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 70% vs Banot 50%
Kaspar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar +3 · Banot +2
Kaspar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kaspar)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 1.65 / Banot 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kaspar)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145348
Kaspar1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite29% won 5 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Banot2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 15 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKaspar3wins
AwayBanot1wins
Kaspar leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaspar100%3 of 3
AwayBanotn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaspar3Banot1n = 4Kaspar took 3 of 4
S2Kaspar2Banot2n = 4split evenly
S3Kaspar3Banot1n = 4Kaspar took 3 of 4
S4Kaspar2Banot1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKasparBanotK − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.836.0+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparBanotBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 159 vs 54 / 11145.9%48.7%73 / 159 vs 54 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasparKaspar 1.65/Banot 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56%
Kaspar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaspar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 06:00M. Kaspar49121313113P. Banot4410151181
WAug 18 · 06:30M. Kaspar4211811123P. Banot347116101
WJun 23 · 08:00M. Kaspar331111113P. Banot229760
LMar 26 · 11:30M. Kaspar351012671P. Banot44121011113
M. Kaspar10
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Kaspar1.671111113V. Rybar2.102250WSep 17 · 07:00M. Kaspar2.1041111113M. Levicky1.67115681WSep 17 · 06:00P. Banot2.1010151181M. Kaspar1.67121313113LSep 14 · 09:28M. Levicky1.831113113M. Kaspar1.8381160LSep 14 · 08:00M. Levicky1.8311611113M. Kaspar1.83511871WSep 14 · 07:00V. Rybar1.83108111152M. Kaspar1.83121186113WSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311129113M. Derco2.005101191WSep 10 · 12:59M. Kaspar1.831111611143M. Levicky1.83813118122WSep 10 · 12:30D. Tyn1.80114111052M. Kaspar1.91311612113LSep 10 · 11:30M. Kaspar2.639690V. Kocian1.441111113
P. Banot10
WSep 17 · 08:00P. Banot1.44117117113M. Levicky2.6381171162WSep 17 · 07:30V. Rybar2.008830P. Banot1.731111113LSep 17 · 06:00P. Banot2.1010151181M. Kaspar1.67121313113LAug 20 · 21:00P. Banot1.8011913892D. Tyn1.918111111113LAug 20 · 20:30M. Levicky3.256111311133P. Banot1.331113118112LAug 20 · 19:30P. Banot2.63811561Z. Zientek1.4411711113WAug 20 · 18:30D. Tyn2.0081111392P. Banot1.73118911113WAug 18 · 08:58M. Levicky2.636410P. Banot1.441111113LAug 18 · 08:30Z. Zientek1.501111113P. Banot2.504690WAug 18 · 07:30P. Banot1.4411711113M. Levicky2.63811681
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