TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140654
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411115116118––
Matej Levicky
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Levicky to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Matej Levicky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 67 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Matej Levicky at 56.2%
67 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 5–6 Matej Levicky Michal Kaspar has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Levicky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1252 vs Levicky 1229
Kaspar
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 60% vs Levicky 80%
Levicky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 60% vs Levicky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar +1 · Levicky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Levicky) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Levicky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 2.10 / Levicky 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Levicky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13140654
Kaspar2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 17 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back36% 10 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Levicky1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 61 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it80% 45 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaspar5wins
AwayLevicky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasparn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLevicky62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaspar2Levicky8n = 10Levicky took 8 of 10
S2Kaspar4Levicky6n = 10Levicky took 6 of 10
S3Kaspar4Levicky6n = 10Levicky took 6 of 10
S4Kaspar6Levicky2n = 8Kaspar took 6 of 8
S5Kaspar3Levicky1n = 4Kaspar took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasparLevickyK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.1−0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparLevickyBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 160 vs 201 / 38945%51.7%72 / 160 vs 201 / 389Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LevickyKaspar 2.10/Levicky 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Levicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaspar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 07:00M. Kaspar3741111113M. Levicky30115681
LSep 14 · 09:28M. Kaspar2581160M. Levicky351113113
LSep 14 · 08:00M. Kaspar31511871M. Levicky3911611113
WSep 10 · 12:59M. Kaspar531111611143M. Levicky52813118122
WSep 10 · 10:30M. Kaspar559141011113M. Levicky47111212572
LSep 7 · 08:59M. Kaspar401211981M. Levicky3814211113
WSep 7 · 06:30M. Kaspar4111712113M. Levicky367111081
WAug 30 · 12:59M. Kaspar5814111111113M. Levicky5416137992
LAug 30 · 12:00M. Kaspar217860M. Levicky331111113
LAug 18 · 08:00M. Kaspar48910111172M. Levicky47111276113
M. Kaspar10
WSep 17 · 06:00P. Banot2.1010151181M. Kaspar1.67121313113LSep 14 · 09:28M. Levicky1.831113113M. Kaspar1.8381160LSep 14 · 08:00M. Levicky1.8311611113M. Kaspar1.83511871WSep 14 · 07:00V. Rybar1.83108111152M. Kaspar1.83121186113WSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311129113M. Derco2.005101191WSep 10 · 12:59M. Kaspar1.831111611143M. Levicky1.83813118122WSep 10 · 12:30D. Tyn1.80114111052M. Kaspar1.91311612113LSep 10 · 11:30M. Kaspar2.639690V. Kocian1.441111113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Levicky1.73111212572M. Kaspar2.009141011113LSep 7 · 08:59M. Kaspar1.731211981M. Levicky2.0014211113
M. Levicky10
LSep 17 · 08:00P. Banot1.44117117113M. Levicky2.6381171162LSep 17 · 06:30M. Levicky2.005840V. Rybar1.731111113WSep 14 · 09:28M. Levicky1.831113113M. Kaspar1.8381160WSep 14 · 08:00M. Levicky1.8311611113M. Kaspar1.83511871WSep 14 · 07:30M. Derco2.0011481162M. Levicky1.73911119113WSep 14 · 06:00M. Levicky2.00116118113V. Rybar1.7391161172LSep 10 · 12:59M. Kaspar1.831111611143M. Levicky1.83813118122LSep 10 · 12:00V. Kocian1.7311118113M. Levicky2.00981181LSep 10 · 10:30M. Levicky1.73111212572M. Kaspar2.009141011113WSep 7 · 08:59M. Kaspar1.731211981M. Levicky2.0014211113
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