TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142898
Played Sep 17Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611411411––––
Hryhorii Kulishov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHryhorii Kulishov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Hryhorii Kulishov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 47 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Hryhorii Kulishov at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 34–25 Hryhorii Kulishov Hryhorii Kulishov has won 25 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kulishov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-25 in 59
Stepanchuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1462 vs Kulishov 1525
Kulishov
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Kulishov 40%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 50% vs Kulishov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -1 · Kulishov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kulishov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulishov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 2.00 / Kulishov 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kulishov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142898
Stepanchuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Kulishov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 183 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it75% 141 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk7wins
AwayKulishov3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayKulishov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk7Kulishov3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S2Stepanchuk5Kulishov5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepanchuk5Kulishov5n = 10split evenly
S4Stepanchuk5Kulishov3n = 8Stepanchuk took 5 of 8
S5Stepanchuk2Kulishov1n = 3Stepanchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukKulishovS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.4+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukKulishovBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 614 vs 487 / 93748.1%52%295 / 614 vs 487 / 937Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulishovStepanchuk 2.00/Kulishov 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kulishov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kulishov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk43111011113H. Kulishov33712591
WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk3631111113H. Kulishov37118991
LAug 31 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk207760H. Kulishov331111113
WAug 23 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk45111211113H. Kulishov34614591
WAug 19 · 13:55Y. Stepanchuk331111113H. Kulishov237880
WAug 17 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk45111310113H. Kulishov354111281
WAug 14 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk53911911133H. Kulishov48119116112
LAug 9 · 23:05Y. Stepanchuk3711115642H. Kulishov48691111113
WAug 6 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk471110123113H. Kulishov45312101192
LAug 3 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk411610781H. Kulishov48141211113
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 18 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.731111113M. Fomin2.007450LSep 17 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk1.83118118132A. Peretiatko1.83711411153WSep 16 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk2.001111113A. Peretiatko1.737860WSep 16 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk1.5711811113A. Lifanov2.25411631WSep 16 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk1.6761113113P. Ishchyk2.101181191LSep 16 · 13:55Y. Stepanchuk1.44118961D. Us2.6361111113WSep 16 · 13:54Y. Stepanchuk1.831182V. Slabyshev1.83960WSep 10 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk1.8011118113D. Kim1.91571181LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113
H. Kulishov10
WSep 18 · 24:35H. Kulishov1.531111103153A. Peretiatko2.38711211132LSep 17 · 22:05H. Kulishov1.835131071D. Kim1.83111112113LSep 17 · 04:05O. Melashenko2.20781114123H. Kulishov1.611111712102WSep 17 · 02:35H. Kulishov1.57119128133D. Rehotun2.257111011112WSep 17 · 24:35S. Pitsyk1.91311971H. Kulishov1.8011611113LSep 16 · 22:35S. Khandetskyi1.8311514123H. Kulishov1.8381112101WSep 16 · 21:35D. Kim1.9151171132H. Kulishov1.80114117113LSep 15 · 03:35H. Kulishov1.838511101S. Khandetskyi1.8311119123WSep 15 · 01:35V. Kobets2.3811660H. Kulishov1.531311113LSep 15 · 24:35H. Kulishov1.61911961O. Melashenko2.2011911113
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