TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142777
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ivchuk above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 81.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ivchuk 1–27 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 1 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-27 in 28
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 26 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchuk 1751 vs Bondarchuk 1933
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchuk 40% vs Bondarchuk 80%
Bondarchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchuk 50% vs Bondarchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchuk -2 · Bondarchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Bondarchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchuk 3.75 / Bondarchuk 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 79%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142777
Ivchuk3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 16 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Bondarchuk1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 74 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchuk0wins
AwayBondarchuk10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchuk0%0 of 6
AwayBondarchuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchuk6Bondarchuk4n = 10Ivchuk took 6 of 10
S2Ivchuk3Bondarchuk7n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S3Ivchuk2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S4Ivchuk0Bondarchuk9n = 9Bondarchuk took 9 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchukBondarchukI − BBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.041.1−9.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchukBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 524 vs 190 / 33668.3%56.6%358 / 524 vs 190 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukIvchuk 3.75/Bondarchuk 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 12:30O. Ivchuk313111071O. Bondarchuk4011612113
LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk29115851O. Bondarchuk3961111113
LAug 13 · 07:05O. Ivchuk31811481O. Bondarchuk4211911113
LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk29114861O. Bondarchuk4291111113
LAug 12 · 14:00O. Ivchuk4314811642O. Bondarchuk521211711113
LAug 8 · 08:50O. Ivchuk2156100O. Bondarchuk341111123
LAug 7 · 15:00O. Ivchuk4011116572O. Bondarchuk43371111113
LJul 30 · 07:20O. Ivchuk35119691O. Bondarchuk3961111113
LJul 29 · 17:08O. Ivchuk32391191O. Bondarchuk3811115113
LJul 29 · 14:30O. Ivchuk29116391O. Bondarchuk4291111113
O. Ivchuk10
WSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113LSep 17 · 14:30O. Zhurba1.40981114113O. Ivchuk2.75111131272LSep 17 · 13:00O. Ivchuk1.6111119832O. Pavlyuk2.20691111113WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551
O. Bondarchuk10
WSep 17 · 13:30D. Neborak3.25911591O. Bondarchuk1.3311711113WSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.2011770O. Bondarchuk4.331311113LSep 11 · 11:25O. Bondarchuk2.501412771B. Kohut1.50121411113WSep 11 · 09:25A. Molochko1.2812771172O. Bondarchuk3.501011116113WSep 11 · 07:25D. Zeniuk2.00511481O. Bondarchuk1.7311811113LSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180LSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113
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