TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142057
Played Sep 17Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117511911––
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 75.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 41–81 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Dmytro Neborak has won 41 of their 122 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-81 in 122
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 40 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1679 vs Bondarchuk 1928
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Bondarchuk 60%
Bondarchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Bondarchuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +1 · Bondarchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Bondarchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 3.25 / Bondarchuk 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142057
Neborak3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 114 of 324
Down 0–1, comes back16% 30 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 120
Bondarchuk1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 74 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak1wins
AwayBondarchuk9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBondarchuk100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S2Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S3Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S4Neborak2Bondarchuk3n = 5Bondarchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakBondarchukN − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.637.3−9.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 828 vs 189 / 33536.7%56.4%304 / 828 vs 189 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukNeborak 3.25/Bondarchuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 09:35D. Neborak28511841O. Bondarchuk4211911113
LAug 12 · 16:30D. Neborak368101171O. Bondarchuk4311129113
LAug 8 · 11:20D. Neborak2477100O. Bondarchuk341111123
LAug 8 · 10:20D. Neborak24116251O. Bondarchuk4181111113
LAug 7 · 16:30D. Neborak187470O. Bondarchuk331111113
LJul 30 · 11:33D. Neborak187650O. Bondarchuk331111113
LJul 30 · 10:20D. Neborak47610111192O. Bondarchuk49111296113
LJul 29 · 13:30D. Neborak189450O. Bondarchuk331111113
WJul 17 · 10:20D. Neborak4311119123O. Bondarchuk303611101
LJul 17 · 06:50D. Neborak2021170O. Bondarchuk351113113
D. Neborak10
WSep 17 · 12:00D. Neborak1.57115712113I. Hermakivskyi2.25811111092LSep 13 · 09:30D. Neborak2.6399141892S. Hohenko1.4411111216113LSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 08:00D. Neborak4.5011411972O. Zhurba1.17911611113LSep 13 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.17111111113D. Neborak4.50136271WSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:30D. Neborak2.2511112A. Tur1.57690
O. Bondarchuk10
WSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.2011770O. Bondarchuk4.331311113LSep 11 · 11:25O. Bondarchuk2.501412771B. Kohut1.50121411113WSep 11 · 09:25A. Molochko1.2812771172O. Bondarchuk3.501011116113WSep 11 · 07:25D. Zeniuk2.00511481O. Bondarchuk1.7311811113LSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180LSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640LSep 10 · 14:55O. Bondarchuk2.7511116482N. Danyliuk1.40791111113LSep 10 · 13:25O. Bondarchuk2.63371131A. Molochko1.4411119113LSep 10 · 11:55O. Bondarchuk2.201379121B. Kohut1.61111111143
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