TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142111
Played Sep 17Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214121012108111214
Oleg Pavlyuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOleg Pavlyuk to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleg Pavlyuk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 115 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Oleg Pavlyuk at 57.7%
115 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 6–7 Oleg Pavlyuk Dmytro Neborak has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Neborak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1674 vs Pavlyuk 1564
Neborak
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Pavlyuk 60%
Pavlyuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 30% vs Pavlyuk 50%
Pavlyuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Pavlyuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neborak) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.73 / Pavlyuk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neborak)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142111
Neborak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 36 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Pavlyuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayPavlyuk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPavlyuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak50%3 of 6
AwayPavlyuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak6Pavlyuk4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S2Neborak4Pavlyuk6n = 10Pavlyuk took 6 of 10
S3Neborak2Pavlyuk8n = 10Pavlyuk took 8 of 10
S4Neborak3Pavlyuk5n = 8Pavlyuk took 5 of 8
S5Neborak3Pavlyuk2n = 5Neborak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakPavlyukN − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.441.6−1.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakPavlyukBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 829 vs 18 / 4836.7%37.5%304 / 829 vs 18 / 48Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.73/Pavlyuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavlyuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 7 · 08:50D. Neborak30116671O. Pavlyuk3851111113
LMar 6 · 17:20D. Neborak38911991O. Pavlyuk4011711113
WNov 15 · 12:15D. Neborak49117128113O. Pavlyuk43411101172
WNov 15 · 10:20D. Neborak47116811113O. Pavlyuk4891111982
WNov 14 · 18:50D. Neborak45111112113O. Pavlyuk36771481
WSep 12 · 05:30D. Neborak48611911113O. Pavlyuk4411811952
LAug 22 · 07:30D. Neborak2889110O. Pavlyuk351111133
LAug 21 · 11:40D. Neborak4812711992O. Pavlyuk511011811113
LJun 21 · 08:05D. Neborak4611117982O. Pavlyuk47861111113
LJun 20 · 15:43D. Neborak2561090O. Pavlyuk341112113
D. Neborak10
LSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113LSep 17 · 13:30D. Neborak3.25911591O. Bondarchuk1.3311711113WSep 17 · 12:00D. Neborak1.57115712113I. Hermakivskyi2.25811111092LSep 13 · 09:30D. Neborak2.6399141892S. Hohenko1.4411111216113LSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 08:00D. Neborak4.5011411972O. Zhurba1.17911611113LSep 13 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.17111111113D. Neborak4.50136271WSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782
O. Pavlyuk10
LSep 17 · 17:00O. Zhurba1.111111113O. Pavlyuk6.007470WSep 17 · 14:00O. Pavlyuk1.801111113I. Hermakivskyi1.914470WSep 17 · 13:00O. Ivchuk1.6111119832O. Pavlyuk2.20691111113LMay 23 · 11:35S. Rak1.501111113O. Pavlyuk2.509680LMay 23 · 10:05O. Pavlyuk2.385950A. Zeniuk1.531111113WMay 23 · 08:05Y. Kravets2.2068100O. Pavlyuk1.611111123WMay 23 · 06:05V. Plishylo1.83121171142O. Pavlyuk1.831091113113WMay 23 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.831111118102O. Pavlyuk1.83136411123LMay 22 · 19:05O. Pavlyuk2.00711115102D. Shcherbak1.73115811123LMay 22 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.1011117113O. Pavlyuk1.67991141
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