TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13140400
Played Sep 16Finished
Adam Dvoracek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911118119––
Martin Vorel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAdam Dvoracek above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9
76 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dvoracek 15–12 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Vorel beat Dvoracek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvoracek 1.73 / Vorel 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Dvoracek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13140400
Dvoracek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 52 of 70
Vorel2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 70 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvoracek6wins
AwayVorel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvoracek80%4 of 5
AwayVorel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvoracek5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S2Dvoracek6Vorel4n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Dvoracek5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S4Dvoracek4Vorel3n = 7Dvoracek took 4 of 7
S5Dvoracek2Vorel1n = 3Dvoracek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvoracekVorelD − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.8+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvoracekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 485 vs 405 / 78652.2%51.5%253 / 485 vs 405 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekDvoracek 1.73/Vorel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 12:00A. Dvoracek30611671M. Vorel4211911113
WSep 14 · 08:00A. Dvoracek4251214113M. Vorel4211101291
WSep 12 · 08:00A. Dvoracek331111113M. Vorel259880
LSep 9 · 07:45A. Dvoracek43113611122M. Vorel45711112143
WAug 16 · 16:14A. Dvoracek51911118123M. Vorel47119611102
WAug 16 · 13:45A. Dvoracek51119713113M. Vorel46811111152
LAug 15 · 12:00A. Dvoracek3118760M. Vorel422011113
WAug 11 · 09:45A. Dvoracek331111113M. Vorel228950
WAug 6 · 12:34A. Dvoracek3911611113M. Vorel27611461
LAug 6 · 11:00A. Dvoracek33611971M. Vorel4011711113
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 16 · 12:00M. Vorel1.9111911113A. Dvoracek1.80611671WSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113WSep 16 · 09:30M. Hasman1.5359111172A. Dvoracek2.38111166113LSep 15 · 21:08M. Barton1.671111113A. Dvoracek2.109640LSep 15 · 20:00A. Dvoracek1.8311871172M. Barton1.83411118113WSep 15 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer2.0081171172A. Dvoracek1.73118113113LSep 15 · 18:00J. Hanacek2.00111110113A. Dvoracek1.73981281LSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113WSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 07:00O. Plyska1.571111113A. Dvoracek2.256770
M. Vorel10
WSep 16 · 12:00M. Vorel1.9111911113A. Dvoracek1.80611671LSep 16 · 10:30M. Hasman2.001022811113M. Vorel1.73122011722WSep 16 · 10:00M. Melisek2.10511591M. Vorel1.6711511113WSep 14 · 08:33M. Vorel1.9111411113J. Mejzlik1.80811731LSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 06:30J. Mejzlik1.83813811113M. Vorel1.83111111462WSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska2.10712761M. Vorel1.67111011113LSep 12 · 08:28M. Vorel2.50101111882K. Farsky1.50129711113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121
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