TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136840
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911116117––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 11–15 Adam Dvoracek Martin Vorel has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvoracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Dvoracek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1365 vs Dvoracek 1421
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 30% vs Dvoracek 50%
Dvoracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -1 · Dvoracek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.91 / Dvoracek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvoracek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136840
Vorel1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 70 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Dvoracek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 52 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel3wins
AwayDvoracek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel50%2 of 4
AwayDvoracek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S2Vorel4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Vorel5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vorel3Dvoracek4n = 7Dvoracek took 4 of 7
S5Vorel1Dvoracek3n = 4Dvoracek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelDvoracekV − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.7−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 786 vs 253 / 48451.5%52.3%405 / 786 vs 253 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekVorel 1.91/Dvoracek 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel4211101291A. Dvoracek4251214113
LSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel259880A. Dvoracek331111113
WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel45711112143A. Dvoracek43113611122
LAug 16 · 16:14M. Vorel47119611102A. Dvoracek51911118123
LAug 16 · 13:45M. Vorel46811111152A. Dvoracek51119713113
WAug 15 · 12:00M. Vorel422011113A. Dvoracek3118760
LAug 11 · 09:45M. Vorel228950A. Dvoracek331111113
LAug 6 · 12:34M. Vorel27611461A. Dvoracek3911611113
WAug 6 · 11:00M. Vorel4011711113A. Dvoracek33611971
LJul 31 · 12:00M. Vorel53991113112A. Dvoracek511111511133
M. Vorel10
LSep 16 · 10:30M. Hasman2.001022811113M. Vorel1.73122011722WSep 16 · 10:00M. Melisek2.10511591M. Vorel1.6711511113WSep 14 · 08:33M. Vorel1.9111411113J. Mejzlik1.80811731LSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 06:30J. Mejzlik1.83813811113M. Vorel1.83111111462WSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska2.10712761M. Vorel1.67111011113LSep 12 · 08:28M. Vorel2.50101111882K. Farsky1.50129711113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121LSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450
A. Dvoracek10
WSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113WSep 16 · 09:30M. Hasman1.5359111172A. Dvoracek2.38111166113LSep 15 · 21:08M. Barton1.671111113A. Dvoracek2.109640LSep 15 · 20:00A. Dvoracek1.8311871172M. Barton1.83411118113WSep 15 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer2.0081171172A. Dvoracek1.73118113113LSep 15 · 18:00J. Hanacek2.00111110113A. Dvoracek1.73981281LSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113WSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 07:00O. Plyska1.571111113A. Dvoracek2.256770WSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113
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