TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139931
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr David
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121113117115114
Artur Grela
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 95 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Petr David at 60.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 60–32 Artur Grela Artur Grela has won 32 of their 92 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
David beat Grela 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:56What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
60-32 in 92
David
Correct
gap of 28 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1957 vs Grela 1939
David
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Grela 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 50% vs Grela 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Grela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 2.20 / Grela 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Grela)-0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13139931
David2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Grela1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 154 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 104 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid8wins
AwayGrela2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid88.9%8 of 9
AwayGrelan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David9Grela1n = 10David took 9 of 10
S2David5Grela5n = 10split evenly
S3David4Grela6n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4David4Grela3n = 7David took 4 of 7
S5David3Grela0n = 3David took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidGrelaD − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.137.3+5.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime654 / 995 vs 635 / 124865.7%50.9%654 / 995 vs 635 / 1248Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaDavid 2.20/Grela 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 5 · 15:10P. David331111113A. Grela163940
WJun 5 · 07:25P. David531111119113A. Grela4483131192
LJun 4 · 14:50P. David361178101A. Grela4061111123
WJun 4 · 09:35P. David381111163A. Grela3088140
WMay 14 · 13:40P. David551710611113A. Grela48151211552
WMay 14 · 09:35P. David45111211113A. Grela399101371
WMay 6 · 10:00P. David4411814113A. Grela389111261
LMay 6 · 09:15P. David248790A. Grela331111113
WMay 5 · 10:25P. David43111110113A. Grela31661271
WMay 5 · 08:00P. David601118118123A. Grela54920411102
P. David10
WSep 17 · 12:30P. David1.2511118113K. Wloczko3.75931191LSep 17 · 11:15P. David1.6198100G. Felkel2.201111123LSep 17 · 10:00J. Zandecki1.331212113P. David3.25101070WSep 17 · 09:20P. David1.83114711113J. Kosowski1.8391111882WSep 17 · 08:30P. David1.571111113A. Grela2.254780LSep 17 · 06:55P. David1.738111411112M. Jadczyk2.00114163133LSep 17 · 05:40P. David1.6799111262J. Zandecki2.101111710113WSep 17 · 04:10P. David1.8071111113J. Kosowski1.91117971WSep 17 · 03:00P. David1.619111111113G. Felkel2.2011481392LSep 16 · 14:10P. David1.2010880J. Kuzmicz4.331211113
A. Grela10
WSep 17 · 12:55J. Zandecki1.7351111962A. Grela2.00115911113LSep 17 · 12:05A. Grela2.5011118872J. Kosowski1.50791111113WSep 17 · 10:25A. Grela1.671111113G. Felkel2.103790WSep 17 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.50411461A. Grela1.5011411113LSep 17 · 08:30P. David1.571111113A. Grela2.254780LSep 17 · 07:20A. Grela1.91610110G. Felkel1.801112133WSep 17 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00115121192A. Grela1.73911145113WSep 17 · 04:55J. Zandecki1.8389100A. Grela1.831111123WSep 17 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.57141050A. Grela2.251612113LSep 10 · 13:45A. Grela1.80411741M. Jadczyk1.9111411113
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Nothing scheduled
A. Grela
Sep 18 · 03:00A. Grela2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Sep 18 · 04:10A. Grela1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Sep 18 · 05:40A. Grela1.44J. Kuzmicz2.63—Sep 18 · 06:55A. Grela1.80M. Olejnik1.91—Sep 18 · 08:30A. Grela2.50J. Kosowski1.50—Sep 18 · 10:25A. Grela1.80J. Stecyszyn1.91—Sep 18 · 12:30A. Grela1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Sep 18 · 13:45A. Grela2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Sep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.20J. Kosowski1.61—
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